Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Notre Dame

7–1 FBS · FBS Independents · this season
Rating
+22.9
Rank
2
Résumé
6
Projected wins
10.4
CFP odds
93%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sun, Sep 69/6WisconsinWISND −30.8ND −20.5W 41–1367ND · W
Sat, Sep 129/12RiceRICEND −43.7ND −44.5W 52–090RICE · L
Sat, Sep 199/19Michigan StateMSUND −30.4ND −29.5W 27–1071ND · L
Sat, Sep 269/26at PurduePURND −29.1ND −27.5W 49–1096ND · W
Sat, Oct 310/3at North CarolinaUNCND −19.5ND −21.0W 37–2661UNC · W
Sat, Oct 1010/10StanfordSTANND −42.1ND −37.5W 58–797ND · W
Sat, Oct 1710/17at BYUBYUND −7.0ND −10.5L 24–2843BYU · W
Sat, Oct 3110/31at NavyNAVYND −27.1ND −29.5W 35–13—NAVY · W
Sat, Nov 711/7MiamiMIAND −7.1ND −3.5wk 10
Sat, Nov 2111/21SMUSMUND −22.2ND −17.5wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28at SyracuseSYRND −22.3—wk 13

Model on ND games: 6–2 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 3–1 · as the dog 3–1 · home 5–1, away 1–1 · avg gap to the market +3.1 · closer than the market 6 of 8

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
10.47–1 banked, 4 to play · preseason 10.4
Bowl (6+)100%
9+ wins99%
11+ wins53%

The 4 games left add 3.4 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Make the CFP93%
First-round bye36%
Win it all19%
  • A CFP bid: 94% with a win vs Navy, 67% with a loss.

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

8 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.2213th
Success rate50.7%7th
Pass EPA+0.3113th
Rush EPA+0.1435th
Explosive rate10.8%110th
Quality-drive rate67.2%3rd
Points per quality drive5.16th
Defense
EPA allowed−0.1111th
Success allowed34.2%10th
Pass EPA allowed−0.1813th
Rush EPA allowed−0.0534th
Explosive allowed6.6%1st
Havoc rate17.3%14th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+0.660th
Turnover margin+94th · exp. +10.0
Field position margin+9.1 yd4th
Hidden points / game+8.6banked
Luck, wins+0.36.7 earned
One-score record0–1flipped 8–0
Rush rate over expected−3.7%97th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+22.92nd
Schedule played−0.271st
Schedule remaining+5.446th
Full schedule+1.664th
Pregame expected wins5.3of 8

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 3Wk 6Wk 9
Ours 2nd · +22.9AP 5thWeek 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageTCUNorth CarolinaUNLVMemphisStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABKansasGeorgia StatePurdueFresno StateMiamiMichigan StateToledoOklahomaUTEPColorado StateWyomingTroySam HoustonTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonOld DominionLouisiana TechSouthern MissArkansasKentuckyIowa StateAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateOregonBoise StateCincinnatiBoston CollegeNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateIowaNorthern IllinoisMichiganWestern MichiganFloridaFlorida AtlanticLouisianaAuburnBaylorNorthwesternBYUMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateSouth CarolinaKent StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLACharlotteOhio StateBall StatePittsburghMiami (OH)NebraskaOhioWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaSyracuseUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyArmyWashingtonWashington StateWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUNDgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Notre Dameoff +0.22 13thdef −0.11 allowed · 11th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.