Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Notre Dame
7–1 FBS · FBS Independents · this season
Rating
+22.9
Rank
2
Résumé
6
Projected wins
10.4
CFP odds
93%
Schedule
our line · the market · graded at the early week lineDateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Model on ND games: 6–2 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 3–1 · as the dog 3–1 · home 5–1, away 1–1 · avg gap to the market +3.1 · closer than the market 6 of 8
Outlook
from 10,000 season simulationsProjected wins
10.47–1 banked, 4 to play · preseason 10.4
Bowl (6+)100%
9+ wins99%
11+ wins53%
The 4 games left add 3.4 expected wins.
Playoff picture
Make the CFP93%
First-round bye36%
Win it all19%
- A CFP bid: 94% with a win vs Navy, 67% with a loss.
Full bracket on the playoffs page.
Offense and defense
8 games · rank of 138 FBSrank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.2213th
Success rate50.7%7th
Pass EPA+0.3113th
Rush EPA+0.1435th
Explosive rate10.8%110th
Quality-drive rate67.2%3rd
Points per quality drive5.16th
Defense
EPA allowed−0.1111th
Success allowed34.2%10th
Pass EPA allowed−0.1813th
Rush EPA allowed−0.0534th
Explosive allowed6.6%1st
Havoc rate17.3%14th
Special teams, luck and schedule
through the latest boardrank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+0.660th
Turnover margin+94th · exp. +10.0
Field position margin+9.1 yd4th
Hidden points / game+8.6banked
Luck, wins+0.36.7 earned
One-score record0–1flipped 8–0
Rush rate over expected−3.7%97th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+22.92nd
Schedule played−0.271st
Schedule remaining+5.446th
Full schedule+1.664th
Pregame expected wins5.3of 8
Ranking by week
ours vs the AP pollOurs 2nd · +22.9AP 5thWeek 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
Notre Dameoff +0.22 13thdef −0.11 allowed · 11th
Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.
Notre Dameoff +0.22 13thdef −0.11 allowed · 11th
Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.



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