Week 2 report · Sat, Sep 12 · 2026 Week 2
Rice
1–7 · Ours #108 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
0–52FinalWe had RICE 6 – ND 50
AP #3Notre Dame
7–1 · Ours #3 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.ND 99%ND won
ND 99%ND wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at ND −44.5.ND −44.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −43.7 · ND covered by 7.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 56.0.54.5final 52 · under by 2.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.RICE +44.5Lmatched the close
RICE +44.5Lmatched the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Jacurri Brown8/12 · 64 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.2120th pct
- Comp %
- 66.7
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
CJ Carr16/20 · 253 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.7996th pct
- Comp %
- 80.0
- TD
- 4
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
Relieved in Q3 by Noah Grubbs
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Riceoffense | Played like ND +47.2Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseNotre Dame | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0th | 4.8%▼36.8 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 4.8%▲29.6 | 100th |
| 6th | −0.34▼0.43 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.34▲0.17 | 94th |
| 1st | −0.92▼0.74 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.92▲0.67 | 99th |
| 29th | −0.10▼0.27 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.10▲0.03 | 71st |
| 79th | 0▲0.7 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.7 | 21st |
| Notre Dameoffense | defenseRice | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99th | 67.9%▲16.9 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 67.9%▼25.2 | 1st |
| 87th | +0.36▲0.11 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.36▼0.23 | 13th |
| 86th | +0.49▲0.15 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.49▼0.31 | 14th |
| 71st | +0.19 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.19▼0.11 | 29th |
| 79th | 0▲0.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.2 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| RiceRICE | Notre DameND | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2313th | Own 4298th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | 0.0 pts39th | +0.6 pts65th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 211st | 285th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −35.81st | +35.899th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 08th | 127th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.8 pts90th | −0.2 pts37th |
| Return touchdownsReturn TDsDefensive and special-teams touchdowns. | 043rd | 192nd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. ND +18.6: turnovers +7.8, field position +6.7, kicking +0.4, 4th downs −1.3, penalty first downs +0.8, return touchdowns +4.2. | −18.61st | +18.699th |
Season so far
Rice1–7 · 60th-hardest schedule
Wvs Houston Christian31–3covered −22.5
Lat Notre Dame0–52missed +44.5
at Notre Dame0–52missed +44.5L
vs Western Michigan21–28covered +8.5
vs Western Michigan21–28covered +8.5L
at Fresno State24–38missed +13
at Fresno State24–38missed +13L
vs UTSA14–16covered +12.5
vs UTSA14–16covered +12.5L
at East Carolina12–28missed +10
at East Carolina12–28missed +10L
vs Tulsa17–38missed +4.5
vs Tulsa17–38missed +4.5L
at Florida Atlantic49–51covered +9
at Florida Atlantic49–51covered +9Notre Dame7–1 · 72nd-hardest schedule
W
vs Wisconsin41–13covered −21.5
vs Wisconsin41–13covered −21.5Wvs Rice52–0covered −44.5
vs Rice52–0covered −44.5W
vs Michigan State27–10missed −29
vs Michigan State27–10missed −29W
at Purdue49–10covered −27.5
at Purdue49–10covered −27.5W
at North Carolina37–26missed −21
at North Carolina37–26missed −21W
vs Stanford58–7covered −39.5
vs Stanford58–7covered −39.5L
at BYU24–28missed −10.5
at BYU24–28missed −10.5W
at Navy35–13missed −31
at Navy35–13missed −31Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 12, 3:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is