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Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTupdated
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Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Rice

1–7 FBS · American Athletic · this season
Rating
−11.2
Rank
121
Résumé
130
Projected wins
2.4▼ 0.4 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5Houston ChristianHouston ChristianRICE −27.8RICE −22.5W 31–381
Sat, Sep 129/12at Notre DameNDRICE +43.7RICE +44.5L 0–5210RICE · L
Sat, Sep 199/19Western MichiganWMURICE +11.5RICE +10.5L 21–2846RICE · W
Sat, Sep 269/26at Fresno StateFRESRICE +19.9RICE +13.0L 24–3851FRES · W
Sat, Oct 310/3UTSAUTSARICE +6.7RICE +11.5L 14–1653RICE · W
Sat, Oct 1010/10at East CarolinaECURICE +7.5RICE +9.5L 12–2842RICE · L
Sat, Oct 1710/17TulsaTLSARICE +1.8RICE +4.5L 17–3830RICE · L
Sat, Oct 2410/24at Florida AtlanticFAURICE +7.2RICE +10.0L 49–5160RICE · W
Sat, Nov 711/7at North TexasUNTRICE +14.3—wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14TulaneTULNRICE −1.4—wk 11
Thu, Nov 1911/19at TempleTEMRICE +3.4—wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28ArmyARMYRICE +8.3—wk 13

Model on RICE games: 4–3 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 1–0 · as the dog 3–3 · home 3–1, away 1–2 · avg gap to the market +3.3 · closer than the market 2 of 7

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
2.41–7 banked, 4 to play · preseason 2.8
Bowl (6+)0%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 4 games left add 1.4 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game0%
Win conference0%
Make the CFP0%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

8 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.0868th
Success rate41.5%86th
Pass EPA−0.23136th
Rush EPA+0.1719th
Explosive rate10.5%116th
Quality-drive rate34.1%136th
Points per quality drive3.4113th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.1099th
Success allowed43.0%92nd
Pass EPA allowed+0.14103rd
Rush EPA allowed+0.0786th
Explosive allowed13.4%102nd
Havoc rate14.0%71st

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game−3.4131st
Turnover margin−13137th · exp. −3.5
Field position margin−9.3 yd138th
Hidden points / game−8.6gave up
Luck, wins−1.02.0 earned
One-score record0–3flipped 4–4
Rush rate over expected+26.3%4th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−11.2121st
Schedule played+1.260th
Schedule remaining−3.176th
Full schedule−0.473rd
Pregame expected wins2.6of 8

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 3Wk 6Wk 9
Ours 121st · −11.2Week 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageTCUNorth CarolinaUNLVMemphisStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABKansasGeorgia StatePurdueFresno StateMiamiMichigan StateToledoOklahomaUTEPColorado StateWyomingTroySam HoustonTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonOld DominionLouisiana TechSouthern MissArkansasKentuckyIowa StateAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateOregonBoise StateCincinnatiBoston CollegeNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateIowaNorthern IllinoisMichiganWestern MichiganFloridaFlorida AtlanticLouisianaAuburnBaylorNorthwesternBYUMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateSouth CarolinaKent StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLACharlotteOhio StateBall StatePittsburghMiami (OH)NebraskaOhioWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaSyracuseUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyArmyWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMURICEgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Riceoff +0.08 68thdef +0.10 allowed · 99th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.