Week 1 report · Sun, Sep 6 · 2026 Week 1
Wisconsin
5–3 · Ours #65 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
13–41FinalWe had WIS 11 – ND 42
AP #4Notre Dame
7–1 · Ours #3 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.ND 97%ND won
ND 97%ND wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at ND −20.5.ND −21.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −30.8 · ND covered by 6.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 53.7.46.5final 54 · over by 7.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.ND −20.5Wbeat the close by 1.0
ND −20.5Wbeat the close by 1.0Quarterbacksthis game
Colton Joseph19/29 · 217 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.1252nd pct
- Comp %
- 65.5
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
CJ Carr19/29 · 239 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.2666th pct
- Comp %
- 65.5
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Wisconsinoffense | Played like ND +14.5Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseNotre Dame | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18th | 32.1%▼9.1 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 32.1%▼2.2 | 82nd |
| 25th | −0.12▼0.20 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.12▼0.09 | 75th |
| 31st | −0.14▼0.12 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.14▼0.25 | 70th |
| 30th | −0.10▼0.24 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.10▲0.02 | 70th |
| 41st | 1▼0.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▼0.5 | 59th |
| Notre Dameoffense | defenseWisconsin | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 65th | 45.8%▼8.8 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 45.8%▼10.5 | 35th |
| 59th | +0.12▼0.18 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.12▼0.28 | 41st |
| 55th | +0.11▼0.30 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.11▼0.29 | 45th |
| 61st | +0.12▼0.08 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.12▼0.28 | 39th |
| 79th | 0▲0.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.4 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| WisconsinWIS | Notre DameND | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3375th | Own 181st |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +0.9 pts73rd | +1.7 pts89th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 5336th | 5951st |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −10.322nd | +10.379th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 127th | 251st |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.3 pts68th | +0.3 pts68th |
| Return touchdownsReturn TDsDefensive and special-teams touchdowns. | 043rd | 192nd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. ND +3.0: turnovers +2.6, field position −5.1, kicking +0.6, penalty first downs +0.8, return touchdowns +4.2. | −3.034th | +3.066th |
Season so far
Wisconsin5–3 · 11th-hardest schedule
Lat Notre Dame13–41missed +21.5
at Notre Dame13–41missed +21.5Wvs Western Illinois36–9missed −43.5
W
vs Eastern Michigan54–10covered −23.5
vs Eastern Michigan54–10covered −23.5W
at Penn State24–20covered +10
at Penn State24–20covered +10W
vs Michigan State31–3covered −8.5
vs Michigan State31–3covered −8.5L
at UCLA7–17missed +1.5
at UCLA7–17missed +1.5W
vs USC24–7covered +2.5
vs USC24–7covered +2.5L
at Iowa0–30missed +2.5
at Iowa0–30missed +2.5Notre Dame7–1 · 72nd-hardest schedule
Wvs Wisconsin41–13covered −21.5
vs Wisconsin41–13covered −21.5W
vs Rice52–0covered −44.5
vs Rice52–0covered −44.5Wvs Michigan State27–10missed −29
vs Michigan State27–10missed −29W
at Purdue49–10covered −27.5
at Purdue49–10covered −27.5W
at North Carolina37–26missed −21
at North Carolina37–26missed −21W
vs Stanford58–7covered −39.5
vs Stanford58–7covered −39.5L
at BYU24–28missed −10.5
at BYU24–28missed −10.5W
at Navy35–13missed −31
at Navy35–13missed −31Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 6, 6:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is