Board · Rankings · CollegeNext: vs VT · Fri, Nov 6 · 7:00 PM ET →
Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

SMU
6–2 FBS · ACC · this season
Rating
+5.5
Rank
43
Résumé
38
Projected wins
8.6▲ 1.0 vs preseason
CFP odds
9%
Schedule
our line · the market · graded at the early week lineDateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Model on SMU games: 5–2 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 2–0 · as the dog 3–2 · home 2–0, away 3–2 · avg gap to the market +2.4 · closer than the market 2 of 7
Outlook
from 10,000 season simulationsProjected wins
8.66–2 banked, 4 to play · preseason 7.6
Bowl (6+)98%
9+ wins19%
11+ wins0%
The 4 games left add 2.6 expected wins.
Playoff picture
Reach title game30%
Win conference8%
Make the CFP9%
First-round bye<1%
Win it all<1%
- A CFP bid: 12% with a win vs Syracuse, 3% with a loss.
Full bracket on the playoffs page.
Offense and defense
8 games · rank of 138 FBSrank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.2019th
Success rate49.1%18th
Pass EPA+0.385th
Rush EPA+0.0392nd
Explosive rate14.9%23rd
Quality-drive rate69.4%1st
Points per quality drive4.070th
Defense
EPA allowed−0.0050th
Success allowed37.7%32nd
Pass EPA allowed−0.0147th
Rush EPA allowed+0.0161st
Explosive allowed11.1%64th
Havoc rate15.9%33rd
Special teams, luck and schedule
through the latest boardrank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game−0.184th
Turnover margin−5113th · exp. −2.0
Field position margin+7.6 yd8th
Hidden points / game−0.5gave up
Luck, wins+0.15.9 earned
One-score record1–1flipped 6–2
Rush rate over expected−3.7%96th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+5.543rd
Schedule played−0.976th
Schedule remaining+8.431st
Full schedule+2.558th
Pregame expected wins4.7of 8
Ranking by week
ours vs the AP pollOurs 43rd · +5.5AP 19thWeek 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
SMUoff +0.20 19thdef −0.00 allowed · 50th
Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.
SMUoff +0.20 19thdef −0.00 allowed · 50th
Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.
at
at 



at 

at
at