Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

SMU

6–2 FBS · ACC · this season
Rating
+5.5
Rank
43
Résumé
38
Projected wins
8.6▲ 1.0 vs preseason
CFP odds
9%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Mon, Sep 79/7at Florida StateFSUSMU −2.3SMU −2.0W 27–2468SMU · W
Sat, Sep 129/12UC DavisUC DavisSMU −34.3SMU −32.0W 56–1094
Sat, Sep 199/19at LouisvilleLOUSMU −2.4SMU +1.5L 31–4133SMU · L
Sat, Sep 269/26Missouri StateMOSTSMU −33.5SMU −34.5W 34–2470MOST · W
Sat, Oct 310/3Boston CollegeBCSMU −20.8SMU −21.0W 25–1647BC · W
Sat, Oct 1710/17VirginiaUVASMU −6.0SMU −8.5W 23–1364UVA · L
Sat, Oct 2410/24CaliforniaCALSMU −17.9SMU −18.5W 59–2083SMU · W
Sat, Oct 3110/31at SyracuseSYRSMU −7.7SMU −9.5L 27–30—SYR · W
Fri, Nov 611/6Virginia TechVTSMU −5.1SMU −7.5wk 10
Sat, Nov 2111/21at Notre DameNDSMU +22.2SMU +17.5wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28at StanfordSTANSMU −15.8—wk 13

Model on SMU games: 5–2 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 2–0 · as the dog 3–2 · home 2–0, away 3–2 · avg gap to the market +2.4 · closer than the market 2 of 7

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
8.66–2 banked, 4 to play · preseason 7.6
Bowl (6+)98%
9+ wins19%
11+ wins0%

The 4 games left add 2.6 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game30%
Win conference8%
Make the CFP9%
First-round bye<1%
Win it all<1%
  • A CFP bid: 12% with a win vs Syracuse, 3% with a loss.

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

8 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.2019th
Success rate49.1%18th
Pass EPA+0.385th
Rush EPA+0.0392nd
Explosive rate14.9%23rd
Quality-drive rate69.4%1st
Points per quality drive4.070th
Defense
EPA allowed−0.0050th
Success allowed37.7%32nd
Pass EPA allowed−0.0147th
Rush EPA allowed+0.0161st
Explosive allowed11.1%64th
Havoc rate15.9%33rd

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game−0.184th
Turnover margin−5113th · exp. −2.0
Field position margin+7.6 yd8th
Hidden points / game−0.5gave up
Luck, wins+0.15.9 earned
One-score record1–1flipped 6–2
Rush rate over expected−3.7%96th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+5.543rd
Schedule played−0.976th
Schedule remaining+8.431st
Full schedule+2.558th
Pregame expected wins4.7of 8

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 3Wk 6Wk 9
Ours 43rd · +5.5AP 19thWeek 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageTCUNorth CarolinaUNLVMemphisStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABKansasGeorgia StatePurdueFresno StateMiamiMichigan StateToledoOklahomaUTEPColorado StateWyomingTroySam HoustonTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonOld DominionLouisiana TechSouthern MissArkansasKentuckyIowa StateAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateOregonBoise StateCincinnatiBoston CollegeNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateIowaNorthern IllinoisMichiganWestern MichiganFloridaFlorida AtlanticLouisianaAuburnBaylorNorthwesternBYUMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateSouth CarolinaKent StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLACharlotteOhio StateBall StatePittsburghMiami (OH)NebraskaOhioWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaSyracuseUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyArmyWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
SMUoff +0.20 19thdef −0.00 allowed · 50th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.