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Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTupdated
Board · Rankings · CollegeNext: at MICH · Sat, Nov 7 · time TBD →

Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Michigan State

2–6 FBS · Big Ten · this season
Rating
−0.2
Rank
67
Résumé
113
Projected wins
3.6▼ 1.1 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Fri, Sep 49/4ToledoTOLMSU −0.7MSU −10.0W 30–2050TOL · Push
Sat, Sep 129/12Eastern MichiganEMUMSU −16.1MSU −17.5W 35–774EMU · L
Sat, Sep 199/19at Notre DameNDMSU +30.4MSU +29.5L 10–2729ND · L
Sat, Sep 269/26NebraskaNEBMSU +3.5MSU +4.5L 13–3135NEB · W
Sat, Oct 310/3at WisconsinWISMSU +9.0MSU +10.0L 3–3123MSU · L
Sat, Oct 1010/10IllinoisILLMSU +2.3MSU +3.5L 37–3867MSU · W
Sat, Oct 1710/17NorthwesternNUMSU +7.9MSU +8.5L 21–2444MSU · W
Sat, Oct 2410/24at UCLAUCLAMSU +15.9MSU +14.0L 10–2826UCLA · W
Sat, Nov 711/7at MichiganMICHMSU +11.6MSU +14.0wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14WashingtonWASHMSU +3.1—wk 11
Fri, Nov 2011/20OregonOREMSU +10.9—wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28at RutgersRUTGMSU −7.9—wk 13

Model on MSU games: 4–3–1 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 2–1 · as the dog 2–2 · home 3–1, away 1–2 · avg gap to the market +1.0 · closer than the market 2 of 8

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
3.62–6 banked, 4 to play · preseason 4.7
Bowl (6+)2%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 4 games left add 1.6 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game0%
Win conference0%
Make the CFP0%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

8 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play−0.05124th
Success rate41.5%87th
Pass EPA−0.06115th
Rush EPA−0.04118th
Explosive rate8.5%135th
Quality-drive rate48.8%84th
Points per quality drive3.696th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.0685th
Success allowed43.5%96th
Pass EPA allowed+0.1398th
Rush EPA allowed+0.0156th
Explosive allowed11.1%60th
Havoc rate12.4%104th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+3.210th
Turnover margin−4109th · exp. −6.0
Field position margin+0.9 yd68th
Hidden points / game+0.7banked
Luck, wins−1.23.2 earned
One-score record0–2flipped 4–4
Rush rate over expected+0.2%49th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−0.267th
Schedule played+7.217th
Schedule remaining+2.759th
Full schedule+5.730th
Pregame expected wins1.6of 8

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 3Wk 6Wk 9
Ours 67th · −0.2Week 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageTCUNorth CarolinaUNLVMemphisStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABKansasGeorgia StatePurdueFresno StateMiamiToledoOklahomaUTEPColorado StateWyomingTroySam HoustonTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonOld DominionLouisiana TechSouthern MissArkansasKentuckyIowa StateAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateOregonBoise StateCincinnatiBoston CollegeNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateIowaNorthern IllinoisMichiganWestern MichiganFloridaFlorida AtlanticLouisianaAuburnBaylorNorthwesternBYUMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateSouth CarolinaKent StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLACharlotteOhio StateBall StatePittsburghMiami (OH)NebraskaOhioWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaSyracuseUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyArmyWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUMSUgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Michigan Stateoff −0.05 124thdef +0.06 allowed · 85th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.