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Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTupdated
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Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Purdue

3–4 FBS · Big Ten · this season
Rating
−2.2
Rank
81
Résumé
77
Projected wins
4.2▲ 1.4 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Fri, Sep 49/4Indiana StateIndiana StatePUR −27.6PUR −35.0W 44–1987
Sat, Sep 129/12Wake ForestWAKEPUR +4.0PUR +4.5L 36–3861PUR · W
Sat, Sep 199/19at UCLAUCLAPUR +14.9PUR +14.0L 38–5249UCLA · Push
Sat, Sep 269/26Notre DameNDPUR +29.1PUR +27.5L 10–494ND · W
Sat, Oct 310/3at IllinoisILLPUR +16.8PUR +10.0W 24–1755ILL · L
Sat, Oct 1010/10MinnesotaMINNPUR +5.9PUR +2.5W 41–1369MINN · L
Fri, Oct 1610/16WashingtonWASHPUR +2.6PUR −3.0L 26–3831WASH · W
Sat, Oct 3110/31at Penn StatePSUPUR +11.3PUR +10.0PSU −10.0Pass
Sat, Nov 711/7MarylandMDPUR −3.0—wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14at IowaIOWAPUR +16.8—wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21WisconsinWISPUR +12.9—wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28at IndianaIUPUR +25.5—wk 13

Model on PUR games: 3–2–1 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 1–2 · as the dog 2–0 · home 1–1, away 2–1 · avg gap to the market +3.8 · closer than the market 2 of 6

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
4.23–4 banked, 5 to play · preseason 2.8
Bowl (6+)1%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 5 games left add 1.2 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game0%
Win conference0%
Make the CFP0%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

7 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.1542nd
Success rate45.6%42nd
Pass EPA+0.2331st
Rush EPA+0.0676th
Explosive rate13.7%43rd
Quality-drive rate61.1%10th
Points per quality drive4.353rd
Defense
EPA allowed+0.16123rd
Success allowed47.3%131st
Pass EPA allowed+0.20118th
Rush EPA allowed+0.12108th
Explosive allowed19.4%138th
Havoc rate13.1%88th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+2.717th
Turnover margin+343rd · exp. +2.5
Field position margin+2.4 yd43rd
Hidden points / game+3.8banked
Luck, wins−1.14.2 earned
One-score record1–1flipped 3–4
Rush rate over expected−4.5%104th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−2.281st
Schedule played+9.73rd
Schedule remaining+8.829th
Full schedule+9.38th
Pregame expected wins2.2of 7

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 3Wk 6Wk 9
Ours 81st · −2.2Week 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageTCUNorth CarolinaUNLVMemphisStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABKansasGeorgia StateFresno StateMiamiMichigan StateToledoOklahomaUTEPColorado StateWyomingTroySam HoustonTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonOld DominionLouisiana TechSouthern MissArkansasKentuckyIowa StateAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateOregonBoise StateCincinnatiBoston CollegeNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateIowaNorthern IllinoisMichiganWestern MichiganFloridaFlorida AtlanticLouisianaAuburnBaylorNorthwesternBYUMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateSouth CarolinaKent StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLACharlotteOhio StateBall StatePittsburghMiami (OH)NebraskaOhioWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaSyracuseUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyArmyWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUPURgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Purdueoff +0.15 42nddef +0.16 allowed · 123rd

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.