Week 9 report · Sat, Oct 31 · 2026 Week 9
AP #5Notre Dame
7–1 · Ours #2 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
35–13FinalWe had ND 42 – NAVY 15
Navy
2–6 · Ours #95 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.ND 95%ND won
ND 95%ND wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at ND −30.ND −31oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −27.1 · NAVY covered by 9
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 56.6.55.5final 48 · under by 7.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.NAVY +29.5Wlost 1.5 to the close
NAVY +29.5Wlost 1.5 to the closeSeason so far
Notre Dame7–1 · 72nd-hardest schedule
W
vs Wisconsin41–13covered −21.5
vs Wisconsin41–13covered −21.5W
vs Rice52–0covered −44.5
vs Rice52–0covered −44.5W
vs Michigan State27–10missed −29
vs Michigan State27–10missed −29W
at Purdue49–10covered −27.5
at Purdue49–10covered −27.5W
at North Carolina37–26missed −21
at North Carolina37–26missed −21W
vs Stanford58–7covered −39.5
vs Stanford58–7covered −39.5L
at BYU24–28missed −10.5
at BYU24–28missed −10.5Wat Navy35–13missed −31
at Navy35–13missed −31Navy2–6 · 68th-hardest schedule
Wvs Towson42–15missed −31.5
L
at Florida Atlantic30–38missed −4QB change mid-game
at Florida Atlantic30–38missed −4QB change mid-gameL
at UAB20–24missed −6.5
at UAB20–24missed −6.5L
at Air Force9–14missed +3QB change mid-game
at Air Force9–14missed +3QB change mid-gameW
vs Tulsa34–26covered −3
vs Tulsa34–26covered −3L
at UTSA34–38covered +5.5
at UTSA34–38covered +5.5L
vs North Texas39–49missed +3
vs North Texas39–49missed +3Lvs Notre Dame13–35covered +31
vs Notre Dame13–35covered +31Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 31, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is