Week 6 report · Sat, Oct 10 · 2026 Week 6
Stanford
4–5 · Ours #114 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
7–58FinalWe had STAN 6 – ND 48
AP #3Notre Dame
7–1 · Ours #1 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.ND 99%ND won
ND 99%ND wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at ND −37.ND −39.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −42.1 · ND covered by 11.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 53.6.55final 65 · over by 10
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.ND −37.5Wbeat the close by 2.0
ND −37.5Wbeat the close by 2.0Quarterbacksthis game
Davis Warren12/22 · 144 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.1724th pct
- Comp %
- 54.5
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
CJ Carr14/20 · 181 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.4682nd pct
- Comp %
- 70.0
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
Relieved in Q3 by Noah Grubbs
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Stanfordoffense | Played like ND +52.7Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseNotre Dame | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2nd | 18.5%▼18.9 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 18.5%▲13.7 | 98th |
| 1st | −0.58▼0.58 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.58▲0.45 | 99th |
| 1st | −0.91▼0.98 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.91▲0.65 | 99th |
| 16th | −0.22▼0.17 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.22▲0.17 | 84th |
| 4th | 3▼2.6 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 3▲1.8 | 96th |
| Notre Dameoffense | defenseStanford | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 73rd | 48.5%▼5.7 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 48.5%▲3.3 | 27th |
| 94th | +0.45▲0.21 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.45▼0.18 | 7th |
| 83rd | +0.44▲0.08 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.44▼0.16 | 17th |
| 94th | +0.46▲0.32 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.46▼0.21 | 6th |
| 79th | 0▲0.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.7 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| StanfordSTAN | Notre DameND | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 214th | Own 3585th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | 0.0 pts39th | +0.5 pts62nd |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 274th | 3310th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −19.39th | +19.391st |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 251st | 08th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. ND +11.5: turnovers +7.8, field position +4.9, kicking +0.4, penalty first downs −1.5. | −11.57th | +11.593rd |
Season so far
Stanford4–5 · 10th-hardest schedule
W
vs Hawai'i37–27covered −4.5
vs Hawai'i37–27covered −4.5L
vs Miami6–45missed +24.5
vs Miami6–45missed +24.5L
at Duke7–35missed +10
at Duke7–35missed +10W
vs Georgia Tech34–27covered +3
vs Georgia Tech34–27covered +3L
at Wake Forest3–57missed +14.5
at Wake Forest3–57missed +14.5Lat Notre Dame7–58missed +39.5
at Notre Dame7–58missed +39.5Wvs Elon34–7missed −34
W
vs NC State31–28covered +7.5
vs NC State31–28covered +7.5L
at Louisville24–52missed +22.5
at Louisville24–52missed +22.5Notre Dame7–1 · 72nd-hardest schedule
W
vs Wisconsin41–13covered −21.5
vs Wisconsin41–13covered −21.5W
vs Rice52–0covered −44.5
vs Rice52–0covered −44.5W
vs Michigan State27–10missed −29
vs Michigan State27–10missed −29W
at Purdue49–10covered −27.5
at Purdue49–10covered −27.5W
at North Carolina37–26missed −21
at North Carolina37–26missed −21Wvs Stanford58–7covered −39.5
vs Stanford58–7covered −39.5L
at BYU24–28missed −10.5
at BYU24–28missed −10.5W
at Navy35–13missed −31
at Navy35–13missed −31Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 10, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is