Week 4 report · Sat, Sep 26 · 2026 Week 4
AP #3Notre Dame
7–1 · Ours #2 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
49–10FinalWe had ND 46 – PUR 17
Purdue
3–4 · Ours #83 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.ND 96%ND won
ND 96%ND wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at ND −27.5.ND −27.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −29.1 · ND covered by 11.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 62.6.57final 59 · over by 2
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.No call
Quarterbacksthis game
CJ Carr14/22 · 237 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.3273rd pct
- Comp %
- 63.6
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
Ryan Browne18/28 · 111 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.564th pct
- Comp %
- 64.3
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 4
Relieved in Q4 by Evans Chuba
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Notre Dameoffense | Played like ND +47.1Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defensePurdue | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99th | 67.7%▲16.7 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 67.7%▼20.9 | 2nd |
| 96th | +0.52▲0.29 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.52▼0.38 | 4th |
| 93rd | +0.65▲0.32 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.65▼0.41 | 7th |
| 91st | +0.39▲0.24 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.39▼0.46 | 9th |
| 41st | 1▼1.0 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1 | 59th |
| Purdueoffense | defenseNotre Dame | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28th | 36.1%▼9.9 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 36.1%▼6.9 | 72nd |
| 4th | −0.42▼0.60 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.42▲0.27 | 96th |
| 5th | −0.56▼0.87 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.56▲0.25 | 95th |
| 19th | −0.20▼0.24 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.20▲0.15 | 81st |
| 41st | 1▼0.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▼0.5 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Notre DameND | PurduePUR | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2417th | Own 2846th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | 0.0 pts39th | +1.2 pts79th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 317th | 3613th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +29.898th | −29.82nd |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 127th | 127th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.3 pts68th | −0.9 pts9th |
| Return touchdownsReturn TDsDefensive and special-teams touchdowns. | 192nd | 043rd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. ND +3.6: field position −1.4, kicking −0.8, 4th downs +1.6, return touchdowns +4.2. | +3.668th | −3.632nd |
Season so far
Notre Dame7–1 · 72nd-hardest schedule
W
vs Wisconsin41–13covered −21.5
vs Wisconsin41–13covered −21.5W
vs Rice52–0covered −44.5
vs Rice52–0covered −44.5W
vs Michigan State27–10missed −29
vs Michigan State27–10missed −29Wat Purdue49–10covered −27.5
at Purdue49–10covered −27.5W
at North Carolina37–26missed −21
at North Carolina37–26missed −21W
vs Stanford58–7covered −39.5
vs Stanford58–7covered −39.5L
at BYU24–28missed −10.5
at BYU24–28missed −10.5W
at Navy35–13missed −31
at Navy35–13missed −31Purdue3–4 · 4th-hardest schedule
Wvs Indiana State44–19missed −35
L
vs Wake Forest36–38covered +3
vs Wake Forest36–38covered +3L
at UCLA38–52missed +13.5
at UCLA38–52missed +13.5Lvs Notre Dame10–49missed +27.5
vs Notre Dame10–49missed +27.5W
at Illinois24–17covered +9.5
at Illinois24–17covered +9.5W
vs Minnesota41–13covered +2.5
vs Minnesota41–13covered +2.5L
vs Washington26–38missed −3
vs Washington26–38missed −3Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.6 · run Sep 26, 10:05 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is