Stanford

Board · Rankings · CollegeNext: at LOU · Sat, Oct 31 · 3:15 PM ET →

Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

4–4 FBS · ACC · this season

Rating

−9.4

Rank

113

Résumé

Projected wins

4.9▲ 1.5 vs preseason

CFP odds

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line

DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call

Sat, Aug 298/29

Hawai'iHAWSTAN −5.6STAN −5.5W 37–2751HAW · L

Fri, Sep 49/4

MiamiMIASTAN +23.8STAN +24.5L 6–4524STAN · L

Sat, Sep 199/19

at DukeDUKESTAN +11.1STAN +9.5L 7–3525DUKE · W

Sat, Sep 269/26

Georgia TechGTSTAN +5.5STAN +5.5W 34–2762STAN · W

Sat, Oct 310/3

at Wake ForestWAKESTAN +14.1STAN +12.5L 3–5713WAKE · W

Sat, Oct 1010/10

at Notre DameNDSTAN +42.1STAN +37.5L 7–584ND · W

Sat, Oct 1710/17ElonElonSTAN −28.3STAN −34.0W 34–764

Fri, Oct 2310/23

NC StateNCSUSTAN +9.8STAN +7.0W 31–2848NCSU · L

Sat, Oct 3110/31

at LouisvilleLOUSTAN +21.9STAN +22.5STAN +22.5Pass

Sat, Nov 1411/14

at Virginia TechVTSTAN +16.6—wk 11

Sat, Nov 2111/21

at CaliforniaCALSTAN +1.9—wk 12

Sat, Nov 2811/28

SMUSMUSTAN +15.8—wk 13

Model on STAN games: 4–3 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 3–1 · as the dog 1–2 · home 4–1, away 0–2 · avg gap to the market +1.5 · closer than the market 3 of 7

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations

Projected wins

4.94–4 banked, 4 to play · preseason 3.4

Bowl (6+)3%

9+ wins0%

11+ wins0%

The 4 games left add 0.9 expected wins.

Playoff picture

Reach title game0%

Win conference0%

Make the CFP0%

First-round bye0%

Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

8 games · rank of 138 FBS

rank of 138

Offense

EPA per play+0.0396th

Success rate39.7%110th

Pass EPA+0.0967th

Rush EPA−0.04117th

Explosive rate11.9%85th

Quality-drive rate44.0%107th

Points per quality drive4.167th

Defense

EPA allowed+0.19127th

Success allowed46.5%128th

Pass EPA allowed+0.18113th

Rush EPA allowed+0.20130th

Explosive allowed14.8%125th

Havoc rate10.7%127th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board

rank of 138

Special teams & luck

Special teams EPA / game−1.2108th

Turnover margin−294th · exp. −1.0

Field position margin−2.3 yd110th

Hidden points / game−0.8gave up

Luck, wins+1.22.8 earned

One-score record2–0flipped 2–6

Rush rate over expected−5.4%115th

Overall

Rating, pts vs average−9.4113th

Schedule played+7.514th

Schedule remaining+2.362nd

Full schedule+5.631st

Pregame expected wins2.5of 8

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll

Ours 113th · −9.4Week 9

Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset

Stanfordoff +0.03 96thdef +0.19 allowed · 127th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.