AP #19SMU
6–2 · Ours #44Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
16–38Our projected score
AP #5Notre Dame
7–1 · Ours #3Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceHow often each team wins the game outright when we play it out thousands of times from our line.ND 91%
ND 91%SpreadThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.ND −17.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −22.2 · first seenThe first DraftKings or FanDuel number we captured for this game. −17.5
TotalThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.56.5oursOur computer's projected combined score for both teams, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. 54.8 · first seen 56.5
Our call · PassNo bet: our line and the best DraftKings or FanDuel price don't beat the bookmaker's cut on this side.ND −17.5-115 DraftKings52% to cover · -2.7% EV
ND −17.5-115 DraftKings52% to cover · -2.7% EVQuarterbackslast game's starter · most dropbacks in each team's last game
Kevin JenningsSenior · 7 starts this year
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 128 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.405th
- Comp %
- 72.2
- TD
- 18
- Turnovers
- 55 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 8
CJ CarrSophomore · 7 starts this year
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 128 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.349th
- Comp %
- 66.5
- TD
- 16
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
The matchupeach offense against the defense it faces · FBS rank in the colored cell
| Notre Dameoffense | Offense edge · 4 of 5 | defenseSMU | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11th | +0.22 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.08. | 0.00 | 52nd |
| 8th | 50.7% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.3%. | 37.7% | 30th |
| 13th | +0.31 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.09. | −0.01 | 47th |
| 35th | +0.14 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | +0.01 | 62nd |
| 110th | 10.8% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.7%. | 11.1% | 62nd |
| SMUoffense | Defense edge · 4 of 5 | defenseNotre Dame | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19th | +0.20 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.08. | −0.11 | 10th |
| 20th | 49.1% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.3%. | 34.2% | 8th |
| 4th | +0.38 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.09. | −0.18 | 13th |
| 94th | +0.03 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | −0.05 | 35th |
| 23rd | 14.9% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.7%. | 6.6% | 1st |
Team stats
| Notre DameND | SMUSMU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Special teamsSpecial teams expected points added per game. | +0.659th | −0.184th |
| Field positionAverage starting field position against the opponent's, in yards. | +9.13rd | +7.68th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| Scoring chancesShare of drives that reach the opponent's 40. | 67%4th | 69%2nd |
| Points per chancePoints scored per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 5.106th | 4.0071st |
| Time of possession | 32:247th | 28:2484th |
| Plays per game | 6844th | 6845th |
| Turnovers & havoc | ||
| Turnover margin | +9 | −5 |
| Giveaways – takeaways | 4 – 13 | 12 – 7 |
| Havoc rateShare of defensive plays with a sack, tackle for loss, interception or forced fumble. | 17.3%17th | 15.9%29th |
Season so far
SMU6–2 · 76th-hardest schedule
W
at Florida State27–24push −3
at Florida State27–24push −3Wvs UC Davis56–10covered −32
L
at Louisville31–41missed +3
at Louisville31–41missed +3W
vs Missouri State34–24missed −30.5
vs Missouri State34–24missed −30.5W
vs Boston College25–16missed −21.5
vs Boston College25–16missed −21.5W
vs Virginia23–13push −10
vs Virginia23–13push −10W
vs California59–20covered −19
vs California59–20covered −19L
at Syracuse27–30missed −9.5
at Syracuse27–30missed −9.5Notre Dame7–1 · 72nd-hardest schedule
W
vs Wisconsin41–13covered −21.5
vs Wisconsin41–13covered −21.5W
vs Rice52–0covered −44.5
vs Rice52–0covered −44.5W
vs Michigan State27–10missed −29
vs Michigan State27–10missed −29W
at Purdue49–10covered −27.5
at Purdue49–10covered −27.5W
at North Carolina37–26missed −21
at North Carolina37–26missed −21W
vs Stanford58–7covered −39.5
vs Stanford58–7covered −39.5L
at BYU24–28missed −10.5
at BYU24–28missed −10.5W
at Navy35–13missed −31
at Navy35–13missed −31Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 27, 7:26 AM EDT · freezes at kickoff and grades as-is