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Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTupdated
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Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Boston College

4–4 FBS · ACC · this season
Rating
−3.8
Rank
88
Résumé
89
Projected wins
5.2▲ 1.6 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5at CincinnatiCINBC +7.3BC +7.5L 15–3448BC · L
Fri, Sep 119/11RutgersRUTGBC −3.0BC −3.5W 28–2155RUTG · L
Sat, Sep 199/19MaineMaineBC −33.7BC −37.5W 22–1641
Sat, Sep 269/26Virginia TechVTBC +15.8BC +15.0L 14–2158BC · W
Sat, Oct 310/3at SMUSMUBC +20.8BC +21.0L 16–2553BC · W
Sat, Oct 1710/17PittsburghPITTBC +11.3BC +6.0W 27–2152PITT · L
Sat, Oct 2410/24at Georgia TechGTBC +10.0BC +5.5W 49–2772GT · L
Sat, Oct 3110/31at DukeDUKEBC +8.9BC +7.5L 2–47—DUKE · W
Sat, Nov 711/7Florida StateFSUBC +7.0—wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14at Notre DameNDBC +32.7—wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21SyracuseSYRBC −1.7—wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28at MiamiMIABC +27.9—wk 13

Model on BC games: 3–4 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 1–2 · as the dog 2–2 · home 2–1, away 1–3 · avg gap to the market +1.8 · closer than the market 4 of 7

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
5.24–4 banked, 4 to play · preseason 3.6
Bowl (6+)9%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 4 games left add 1.2 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game0%
Win conference0%
Make the CFP0%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

8 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.0493rd
Success rate41.8%80th
Pass EPA−0.09119th
Rush EPA+0.1529th
Explosive rate14.8%27th
Quality-drive rate49.4%81st
Points per quality drive3.5106th
Defense
EPA allowed−0.0333rd
Success allowed40.7%61st
Pass EPA allowed+0.0056th
Rush EPA allowed−0.0728th
Explosive allowed9.4%17th
Havoc rate14.8%52nd

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game−2.8125th
Turnover margin−294th · exp. +3.0
Field position margin−2.5 yd112th
Hidden points / game−2.8gave up
Luck, wins+0.63.4 earned
One-score record3–1flipped 2–6
Rush rate over expected+3.8%30th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−3.888th
Schedule played+1.949th
Schedule remaining+12.46th
Full schedule+5.829th
Pregame expected wins1.5of 8

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 3Wk 6Wk 9
Ours 88th · −3.8Week 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageTCUNorth CarolinaUNLVMemphisStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABKansasGeorgia StatePurdueFresno StateMiamiMichigan StateToledoOklahomaUTEPColorado StateWyomingTroySam HoustonTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonOld DominionLouisiana TechSouthern MissArkansasKentuckyIowa StateAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateOregonBoise StateCincinnatiNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateIowaNorthern IllinoisMichiganWestern MichiganFloridaFlorida AtlanticLouisianaAuburnBaylorNorthwesternBYUMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateSouth CarolinaKent StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLACharlotteOhio StateBall StatePittsburghMiami (OH)NebraskaOhioWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaSyracuseUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyArmyWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUBCgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Boston Collegeoff +0.04 93rddef −0.03 allowed · 33rd

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.