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Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTupdated
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Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Syracuse

4–4 FBS · ACC · this season
Rating
+0.9
Rank
63
Résumé
82
Projected wins
4.8▲ 2.4 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5New HampshireNew HampshireSYR −26.6SYR −35.5W 66–398
Sat, Sep 129/12CaliforniaCALSYR −6.3SYR −3.0L 18–2158CAL · W
Thu, Sep 179/17at PittsburghPITTSYR +15.8SYR +9.5L 13–2755PITT · W
Sat, Oct 310/3at UConnCONNSYR +7.5SYR −6.5W 42–4138CONN · W
Sat, Oct 1010/10at VirginiaUVASYR +11.0SYR +8.5L 25–2853UVA · L
Sat, Oct 1710/17LouisvilleLOUSYR +13.1SYR +13.5L 26–3438SYR · W
Sat, Oct 2410/24at North CarolinaUNCSYR +10.7SYR +8.5W 31–3058UNC · L
Sat, Oct 3110/31SMUSMUSYR +7.7SYR +9.5W 30–27—SYR · W
Sat, Nov 711/7ClemsonCLEMSYR PK—wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14at NC StateNCSUSYR +2.9—wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21at Boston CollegeBCSYR +1.7—wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28Notre DameNDSYR +22.3—wk 13

Model on SYR games: 5–2 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 1–2 · as the dog 4–0 · home 4–2, away 1–0 · avg gap to the market +4.2 · closer than the market 4 of 7

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
4.84–4 banked, 4 to play · preseason 2.4
Bowl (6+)6%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 4 games left add 0.8 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game0%
Win conference0%
Make the CFP0%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

8 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.0962nd
Success rate43.1%67th
Pass EPA+0.1157th
Rush EPA+0.0766th
Explosive rate11.7%95th
Quality-drive rate58.8%21st
Points per quality drive3.790th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.0363rd
Success allowed42.5%84th
Pass EPA allowed−0.0832nd
Rush EPA allowed+0.14115th
Explosive allowed13.4%104th
Havoc rate16.6%23rd

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game−3.2128th
Turnover margin−7124th · exp. −4.5
Field position margin−0.7 yd86th
Hidden points / game−4.8gave up
Luck, wins+0.33.7 earned
One-score record3–3flipped 4–4
Rush rate over expected−2.6%81st
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+0.963rd
Schedule played+2.247th
Schedule remaining+5.048th
Full schedule+3.253rd
Pregame expected wins2.8of 8

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 3Wk 6Wk 9
Ours 63rd · +0.9Week 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageTCUNorth CarolinaUNLVMemphisStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABKansasGeorgia StatePurdueFresno StateMiamiMichigan StateToledoOklahomaUTEPColorado StateWyomingTroySam HoustonTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonOld DominionLouisiana TechSouthern MissArkansasKentuckyIowa StateAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateOregonBoise StateCincinnatiBoston CollegeNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateIowaNorthern IllinoisMichiganWestern MichiganFloridaFlorida AtlanticLouisianaAuburnBaylorNorthwesternBYUMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateSouth CarolinaKent StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLACharlotteOhio StateBall StatePittsburghMiami (OH)NebraskaOhioWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyArmyWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUSYRgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Syracuseoff +0.09 62nddef +0.03 allowed · 63rd

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.