Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Miami

7–0 FBS · ACC · this season
Rating
+18.8
Rank
7
Résumé
2
Projected wins
10.9▲ 2.0 vs preseason
CFP odds
94%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Fri, Sep 49/4at StanfordSTANMIA −23.8MIA −24.5W 45–677STAN · L
Thu, Sep 109/10Florida A&MFlorida A&MMIA −37.4MIA −59.5W 77–799
Fri, Sep 189/18at Wake ForestWAKEMIA −24.8MIA −23.5W 33–2049WAKE · W
Sat, Sep 269/26Central MichiganCMUMIA −45.7MIA −42.0W 52–398MIA · W
Sat, Oct 310/3at ClemsonCLEMMIA −16.9MIA −16.5W 41–1360MIA · W
Sat, Oct 1710/17Florida StateFSUMIA −21.1MIA −21.0W 43–3544MIA · L
Sat, Oct 2410/24PittsburghPITTMIA −19.9MIA −21.0W 52–2370PITT · L
Sat, Oct 3110/31at North CarolinaUNCMIA −16.9MIA −14.0MIA −14.0Pass
Sat, Nov 711/7at Notre DameNDMIA +7.1MIA +3.5wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14DukeDUKEMIA −21.4MIA −21.0wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21Virginia TechVTMIA −20.7MIA −16.5wk 12

Model on MIA games: 3–3 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 2–1 · as the dog 1–2 · home 2–2, away 1–1 · avg gap to the market +2.6 · closer than the market 2 of 6

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
10.97–0 banked, 5 to play · preseason 8.9
Bowl (6+)100%
9+ wins96%
11+ wins23%

The 5 games left add 3.9 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game99%
Win conference62%
Make the CFP94%
First-round bye57%
Win it all9%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

7 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.292nd
Success rate52.8%2nd
Pass EPA+0.432nd
Rush EPA+0.1432nd
Explosive rate16.0%12th
Quality-drive rate64.6%6th
Points per quality drive5.42nd
Defense
EPA allowed−0.0144th
Success allowed37.6%31st
Pass EPA allowed+0.16109th
Rush EPA allowed−0.311st
Explosive allowed10.7%40th
Havoc rate12.1%116th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game−0.598th
Turnover margin+530th · exp. +5.0
Field position margin−0.3 yd80th
Hidden points / game+4.7banked
Luck, wins+1.06.0 earned
One-score record1–0flipped 6–1
Rush rate over expected−6.6%119th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+18.87th
Schedule played+0.763rd
Schedule remaining+7.434th
Full schedule+3.752nd
Pregame expected wins4.7of 7

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 3Wk 6Wk 9
Ours 7th · +18.8AP 1stWeek 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageTCUNorth CarolinaUNLVMemphisStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABKansasGeorgia StatePurdueFresno StateMichigan StateToledoOklahomaUTEPColorado StateWyomingTroySam HoustonTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonOld DominionLouisiana TechSouthern MissArkansasKentuckyIowa StateAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateOregonBoise StateCincinnatiBoston CollegeNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateIowaNorthern IllinoisMichiganWestern MichiganFloridaFlorida AtlanticLouisianaAuburnBaylorNorthwesternBYUMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateSouth CarolinaKent StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLACharlotteOhio StateBall StatePittsburghMiami (OH)NebraskaOhioWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaSyracuseUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyArmyWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUMIAgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Miamioff +0.29 2nddef −0.01 allowed · 44th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.