Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Miami
7–0 FBS · ACC · this season
Rating
+18.8
Rank
7
Résumé
2
Projected wins
10.9▲ 2.0 vs preseason
CFP odds
94%
Schedule
our line · the market · graded at the early week lineDateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Model on MIA games: 3–3 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 2–1 · as the dog 1–2 · home 2–2, away 1–1 · avg gap to the market +2.6 · closer than the market 2 of 6
Outlook
from 10,000 season simulationsProjected wins
10.97–0 banked, 5 to play · preseason 8.9
Bowl (6+)100%
9+ wins96%
11+ wins23%
The 5 games left add 3.9 expected wins.
Playoff picture
Reach title game99%
Win conference62%
Make the CFP94%
First-round bye57%
Win it all9%
- A CFP bid: 96% with a win vs North Carolina, 80% with a loss.
Full bracket on the playoffs page.
Offense and defense
7 games · rank of 138 FBSrank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.292nd
Success rate52.8%2nd
Pass EPA+0.432nd
Rush EPA+0.1432nd
Explosive rate16.0%12th
Quality-drive rate64.6%6th
Points per quality drive5.42nd
Defense
EPA allowed−0.0144th
Success allowed37.6%31st
Pass EPA allowed+0.16109th
Rush EPA allowed−0.311st
Explosive allowed10.7%40th
Havoc rate12.1%116th
Special teams, luck and schedule
through the latest boardrank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game−0.598th
Turnover margin+530th · exp. +5.0
Field position margin−0.3 yd80th
Hidden points / game+4.7banked
Luck, wins+1.06.0 earned
One-score record1–0flipped 6–1
Rush rate over expected−6.6%119th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+18.87th
Schedule played+0.763rd
Schedule remaining+7.434th
Full schedule+3.752nd
Pregame expected wins4.7of 7
Ranking by week
ours vs the AP pollOurs 7th · +18.8AP 1stWeek 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
Miamioff +0.29 2nddef −0.01 allowed · 44th
Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.
Miamioff +0.29 2nddef −0.01 allowed · 44th
Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.
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