Navy

Board · Rankings · CollegeNext: vs TEM · Sat, Nov 7 · 3:30 PM ET →

Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

2–6 FBS · American Athletic · this season

Rating

−4.5

Rank

Résumé

121

Projected wins

4.5▼ 2.2 vs preseason

CFP odds

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line

DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call

Sat, Sep 59/5TowsonTowsonNAVY −33.9NAVY −31.5W 42–1559

Sat, Sep 129/12

at Florida AtlanticFAUNAVY −1.6NAVY −6.0L 30–3864FAU · W

Fri, Sep 259/25

at UABUABNAVY +6.9NAVY −12.0L 20–2449UAB · W

Sat, Oct 310/3

at Air ForceAFNAVY +5.4NAVY +3.0L 9–1455AF · W

Sat, Oct 1010/10

TulsaTLSANAVY −1.7NAVY −2.5W 34–2665TLSA · L

Sat, Oct 1710/17

at UTSAUTSANAVY +7.1NAVY +6.5L 34–3857UTSA · L

Sat, Oct 2410/24

North TexasUNTNAVY +4.5NAVY +2.0L 39–4951UNT · W

Sat, Oct 3110/31

Notre DameNDNAVY +27.1NAVY +29.5L 13–35—NAVY · W

Sat, Nov 711/7

TempleTEMNAVY −7.5—wk 10

Sat, Nov 2111/21

MemphisMEMNAVY PK—wk 12

Sat, Nov 2811/28

at CharlotteCLTNAVY −16.7—wk 13

Sat, Dec 1212/12

at ArmyARMYNAVY +3.3NAVY −2.5wk 15

Model on NAVY games: 5–2 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 2–1 · as the dog 3–1 · home 4–1, away 1–1 · avg gap to the market +3.8 · closer than the market 5 of 7

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations

Projected wins

4.52–6 banked, 4 to play · preseason 6.7

Bowl (6+)1%

9+ wins0%

11+ wins0%

The 4 games left add 2.5 expected wins.

Playoff picture

Reach title game0%

Win conference0%

Make the CFP0%

First-round bye0%

Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

8 games · rank of 138 FBS

rank of 138

Offense

EPA per play+0.294th

Success rate48.0%26th

Pass EPA+0.2133rd

Rush EPA+0.311st

Explosive rate13.8%39th

Quality-drive rate46.2%96th

Points per quality drive4.162nd

Defense

EPA allowed+0.13108th

Success allowed41.3%67th

Pass EPA allowed+0.36137th

Rush EPA allowed−0.0722nd

Explosive allowed11.1%59th

Havoc rate13.5%80th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board

rank of 138

Special teams & luck

Special teams EPA / game−2.0117th

Turnover margin−6119th · exp. −4.5

Field position margin−3.7 yd119th

Hidden points / game−4.2gave up

Luck, wins−2.24.2 earned

One-score record1–4flipped 5–3

Rush rate over expected+27.4%3rd

Overall

Rating, pts vs average−4.591st

Schedule played+0.366th

Schedule remaining−6.3104th

Full schedule−2.178th

Pregame expected wins3.2of 8

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll

Ours 91st · −4.5Week 9

Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset

Navyoff +0.29 4thdef +0.13 allowed · 108th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.