Week 7 report · Sat, Oct 17 · 2026 Week 7
AP #2Notre Dame
7–1 · Ours #2 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
24–28FinalWe had ND 29 – BYU 22
AP #8BYU
6–1 · Ours #12 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.ND 67%BYU won
ND 67%BYU wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at ND −11.5.ND −10.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −7 · BYU covered by 14.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 50.8.47final 52 · over by 5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.BYU +10.5Wmatched the close
BYU +10.5Wmatched the closeQuarterbacksthis game
CJ Carr27/49 · 261 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.1454th pct
- Comp %
- 55.1
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
Bear Bachmeier23/36 · 224 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.2364th pct
- Comp %
- 63.9
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Notre Dameoffense | Played like BYU +8.2Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseBYU | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 37th | 38.5%▼17.4 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 38.5%▲0.4 | 63rd |
| 57th | +0.10▼0.20 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.10▼0.11 | 43rd |
| 58th | +0.14▼0.27 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.14▼0.13 | 43rd |
| 49th | +0.03▼0.18 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.03▼0.05 | 51st |
| 79th | 0▲0.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.6 | 21st |
| BYUoffense | defenseNotre Dame | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 71st | 47.8%▼0.3 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 47.8%▼20.5 | 29th |
| 73rd | +0.21▲0.01 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.21▼0.47 | 28th |
| 72nd | +0.28▼0.04 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.28▼0.74 | 28th |
| 61st | +0.12 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.12▼0.22 | 39th |
| 41st | 1▼0.4 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▼0.5 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Notre DameND | BYUBYU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3059th | Own 2419th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +2.2 pts96th | 0.0 pts39th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 7895th | 6774th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −8.425th | +8.475th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 127th | 372nd |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +1.9 pts100th | −0.4 pts26th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. ND +2.4: turnovers −2.6, field position +2.0, kicking +1.6, 4th downs +3.0, penalty first downs −1.5. | +2.462nd | −2.438th |
Season so far
Notre Dame7–1 · 72nd-hardest schedule
W
vs Wisconsin41–13covered −21.5
vs Wisconsin41–13covered −21.5W
vs Rice52–0covered −44.5
vs Rice52–0covered −44.5W
vs Michigan State27–10missed −29
vs Michigan State27–10missed −29W
at Purdue49–10covered −27.5
at Purdue49–10covered −27.5W
at North Carolina37–26missed −21
at North Carolina37–26missed −21W
vs Stanford58–7covered −39.5
vs Stanford58–7covered −39.5Lat BYU24–28missed −10.5
at BYU24–28missed −10.5W
at Navy35–13missed −31
at Navy35–13missed −31BYU6–1 · 35th-hardest schedule
Wvs Utah Tech63–7covered −50.5
W
vs Arizona28–17covered −7
vs Arizona28–17covered −7W
at Colorado State41–23covered −17.5
at Colorado State41–23covered −17.5W
at TCU17–10covered −6
at TCU17–10covered −6W
vs Iowa State24–10covered −12
vs Iowa State24–10covered −12Wvs Notre Dame28–24covered +10.5
vs Notre Dame28–24covered +10.5L
at UCF31–39missed −7.5
at UCF31–39missed −7.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 17, 6:20 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is