Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

BYU

6–1 FBS · Big 12 · this season
Rating
+12.8
Rank
15
Résumé
8
Projected wins
9.4▲ 2.4 vs preseason
CFP odds
50%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5Utah TechUtah TechBYU −33.5BYU −50.5W 63–796
Sat, Sep 129/12ArizonaARIZBYU −6.9BYU −7.5W 28–1763ARIZ · L
Sat, Sep 199/19at Colorado StateCSUBYU −16.4BYU −20.5W 41–2377CSU · W
Sat, Oct 310/3at TCUTCUBYU −8.7BYU −6.5W 17–1060BYU · W
Fri, Oct 910/9Iowa StateISUBYU −13.3BYU −11.0W 24–1070BYU · W
Sat, Oct 1710/17Notre DameNDBYU +7.0BYU +10.5W 28–2458BYU · W
Sat, Oct 2410/24at UCFUCFBYU −14.0BYU −6.5L 31–3945BYU · L
Sat, Oct 3110/31Arizona StateASUBYU −18.0BYU −16.5BYU −16.5Pass
Sat, Nov 711/7at UtahUTAHBYU +5.7BYU +2.5wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14BaylorBAYBYU −10.3—wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21at KansasKUBYU −5.3—wk 12

Model on BYU games: 4–2 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 2–1 · as the dog 2–1 · home 3–0, away 1–2 · avg gap to the market +2.5 · closer than the market 2 of 6

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
9.46–1 banked, 5 to play · preseason 7.0
Bowl (6+)100%
9+ wins49%
11+ wins0%

The 5 games left add 3.4 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game42%
Win conference20%
Make the CFP50%
First-round bye15%
Win it all1%
  • A CFP bid: 56% with a win vs Arizona State, 14% with a loss.
  • Scoreboard watch: root for Navy over Notre Dame — swings a CFP bid between 50% and 53%.

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

7 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.2117th
Success rate48.8%20th
Pass EPA+0.2818th
Rush EPA+0.1531st
Explosive rate12.7%64th
Quality-drive rate52.8%57th
Points per quality drive5.15th
Defense
EPA allowed−0.0241st
Success allowed38.5%35th
Pass EPA allowed−0.0244th
Rush EPA allowed−0.0148th
Explosive allowed9.0%14th
Havoc rate15.4%39th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game−0.189th
Turnover margin+89th · exp. +3.0
Field position margin+1.2 yd63rd
Hidden points / game+0.5banked
Luck, wins+0.25.8 earned
One-score record2–1flipped 5–2
Rush rate over expected+0.8%45th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+12.815th
Schedule played+4.932nd
Schedule remaining+6.937th
Full schedule+5.828th
Pregame expected wins4.5of 7

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 3Wk 6Wk 9
Ours 15th · +12.8AP 8thWeek 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageTCUNorth CarolinaUNLVMemphisStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABKansasGeorgia StatePurdueFresno StateMiamiMichigan StateToledoOklahomaUTEPColorado StateWyomingTroySam HoustonTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonOld DominionLouisiana TechSouthern MissArkansasKentuckyIowa StateAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateOregonBoise StateCincinnatiBoston CollegeNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateIowaNorthern IllinoisMichiganWestern MichiganFloridaFlorida AtlanticLouisianaAuburnBaylorNorthwesternMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateSouth CarolinaKent StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLACharlotteOhio StateBall StatePittsburghMiami (OH)NebraskaOhioWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaSyracuseUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyArmyWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUBYUgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
BYUoff +0.21 17thdef −0.02 allowed · 41st

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.