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Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTupdated
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Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

North Carolina

4–3 FBS · ACC · this season
Rating
+4.7
Rank
47
Résumé
48
Projected wins
6.3▲ 2.6 vs preseason
CFP odds
<1%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Aug 298/29at TCUTCUUNC +10.8UNC +7.5W 15–1055TCU · L
Sat, Sep 129/12East Tennessee StateEast Tennessee StateUNC −31.8UNC −35.5W 35–374
Sat, Sep 199/19at ClemsonCLEMUNC +5.8UNC +4.5L 20–2838CLEM · W
Sat, Oct 310/3Notre DameNDUNC +19.5UNC +21.0L 26–3739UNC · W
Sat, Oct 1010/10at PittsburghPITTUNC +8.4UNC +4.0W 21–1755PITT · L
Sat, Oct 1710/17at DukeDUKEUNC +3.4UNC +3.5W 24–2049UNC · W
Sat, Oct 2410/24SyracuseSYRUNC −10.7UNC −8.5L 30–3143UNC · L
Sat, Oct 3110/31MiamiMIAUNC +16.9UNC +14.0MIA −14.0Pass
Sat, Nov 711/7at UConnCONNUNC PK—wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14LouisvilleLOUUNC +3.1—wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21at VirginiaUVAUNC PK—wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28NC StateNCSUUNC −7.4—wk 13

Model on UNC games: 3–3 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 1–3 · as the dog 2–0 · home 2–3, away 1–0 · avg gap to the market +2.4 · closer than the market 2 of 6

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
6.34–3 banked, 5 to play · preseason 3.7
Bowl (6+)41%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 5 games left add 2.3 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game<1%
Win conference<1%
Make the CFP<1%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

7 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.00105th
Success rate44.7%51st
Pass EPA−0.02109th
Rush EPA+0.0391st
Explosive rate11.4%97th
Quality-drive rate45.8%101st
Points per quality drive4.529th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.0053rd
Success allowed43.2%94th
Pass EPA allowed+0.0161st
Rush EPA allowed−0.0150th
Explosive allowed7.3%4th
Havoc rate12.1%117th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+1.144th
Turnover margin−294th · exp. 0.0
Field position margin−1.6 yd99th
Hidden points / game−1.7gave up
Luck, wins+0.33.7 earned
One-score record3–2flipped 3–4
Rush rate over expected−6.8%122nd
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+4.747th
Schedule played+7.416th
Schedule remaining+5.841st
Full schedule+6.719th
Pregame expected wins1.6of 7

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 3Wk 6Wk 9
Ours 47th · +4.7Week 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageTCUUNLVMemphisStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABKansasGeorgia StatePurdueFresno StateMiamiMichigan StateToledoOklahomaUTEPColorado StateWyomingTroySam HoustonTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonOld DominionLouisiana TechSouthern MissArkansasKentuckyIowa StateAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateOregonBoise StateCincinnatiBoston CollegeNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateIowaNorthern IllinoisMichiganWestern MichiganFloridaFlorida AtlanticLouisianaAuburnBaylorNorthwesternBYUMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateSouth CarolinaKent StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLACharlotteOhio StateBall StatePittsburghMiami (OH)NebraskaOhioWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaSyracuseUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyArmyWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUUNCgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
North Carolinaoff +0.00 105thdef +0.00 allowed · 53rd

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.