Week 5 report · Sat, Oct 3 · 2026 Week 5
AP #3Notre Dame
7–1 · Ours #1 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
37–26FinalWe had ND 35 – UNC 15
North Carolina
4–3 · Ours #61 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.ND 88%ND won
ND 88%ND wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at ND −22.ND −21oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −19.5 · UNC covered by 10
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 50.2.46.5final 63 · over by 16.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.UNC +21Wmatched the close
UNC +21Wmatched the closeQuarterbacksthis game
CJ Carr21/30 · 234 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.3475th pct
- Comp %
- 70.0
- TD
- 4
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
Billy Edwards Jr.17/28 · 208 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.1959th pct
- Comp %
- 60.7
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Notre Dameoffense | Played like ND +10.9Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseNorth Carolina | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 89th | 56.0%▲3.1 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 56.0%▼15.8 | 11th |
| 77th | +0.26▼0.01 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.26▼0.31 | 23rd |
| 77th | +0.34▼0.03 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.34▼0.37 | 23rd |
| 74th | +0.21▲0.03 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.21▼0.28 | 26th |
| 79th | 0▲0.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.2 | 21st |
| North Carolinaoffense | defenseNotre Dame | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 33rd | 37.3%▼6.9 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 37.3%▼8.3 | 67th |
| 57th | +0.10▲0.16 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.10▼0.34 | 43rd |
| 63rd | +0.19▲0.30 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.19▼0.64 | 37th |
| 40th | −0.03▼0.02 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.03▼0.06 | 60th |
| 15th | 2▼1.0 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲0.7 | 85th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Notre DameND | North CarolinaUNC | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3792nd | Own 214th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +0.4 pts59th | 0.0 pts39th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 7591st | 5133rd |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +6.268th | −6.232nd |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 08th | 127th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.3 pts72nd | +0.6 pts82nd |
| Return touchdownsReturn TDsDefensive and special-teams touchdowns. | 192nd | 043rd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. ND +14.4: turnovers +5.2, field position +5.9, kicking +0.3, 4th downs −0.4, penalty first downs −0.8, return touchdowns +4.2. | +14.497th | −14.43rd |
Season so far
Notre Dame7–1 · 72nd-hardest schedule
W
vs Wisconsin41–13covered −21.5
vs Wisconsin41–13covered −21.5W
vs Rice52–0covered −44.5
vs Rice52–0covered −44.5W
vs Michigan State27–10missed −29
vs Michigan State27–10missed −29W
at Purdue49–10covered −27.5
at Purdue49–10covered −27.5Wat North Carolina37–26missed −21
at North Carolina37–26missed −21W
vs Stanford58–7covered −39.5
vs Stanford58–7covered −39.5L
at BYU24–28missed −10.5
at BYU24–28missed −10.5W
at Navy35–13missed −31
at Navy35–13missed −31North Carolina4–3 · 15th-hardest schedule
W
at TCU15–10covered +7.5
at TCU15–10covered +7.5Wvs East Tennessee State35–3missed −35.5
L
at Clemson20–28missed +3
at Clemson20–28missed +3Lvs Notre Dame26–37covered +21
vs Notre Dame26–37covered +21W
at Pittsburgh21–17covered +3.5
at Pittsburgh21–17covered +3.5W
at Duke24–20covered +3
at Duke24–20covered +3L
vs Syracuse30–31missed −9.5
vs Syracuse30–31missed −9.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 3, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is