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Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTupdated
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Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Wisconsin

5–3 FBS · Big Ten · this season
Rating
+8.1
Rank
33
Résumé
34
Projected wins
8.8▲ 4.1 vs preseason
CFP odds
4%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sun, Sep 69/6at Notre DameNDWIS +30.8WIS +20.5L 13–4133ND · W
Sat, Sep 129/12Western IllinoisWestern IllinoisWIS −36.6WIS −43.5W 36–952
Sat, Sep 199/19Eastern MichiganEMUWIS −14.7WIS −24.5W 54–1087EMU · L
Sat, Sep 269/26at Penn StatePSUWIS +16.9WIS +10.5W 24–2058PSU · L
Sat, Oct 310/3Michigan StateMSUWIS −9.0WIS −10.0W 31–377MSU · L
Sat, Oct 1710/17at UCLAUCLAWIS +4.3WIS +3.5L 7–1743UCLA · W
Sat, Oct 2410/24USCUSCWIS +0.8WIS +3.0W 24–756WIS · W
Sat, Oct 3110/31at IowaIOWAWIS +1.6WIS +3.0L 0–30—WIS · L
Sat, Nov 711/7RutgersRUTGWIS −23.9—wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14at MarylandMDWIS −13.6—wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21at PurduePURWIS −12.9—wk 12
Fri, Nov 2711/27MinnesotaMINNWIS −14.4—wk 13

Model on WIS games: 3–4 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 2–1 · as the dog 1–3 · home 3–1, away 0–3 · avg gap to the market +4.4 · closer than the market 4 of 7

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
8.85–3 banked, 4 to play · preseason 4.7
Bowl (6+)99%
9+ wins24%
11+ wins0%

The 4 games left add 3.8 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game9%
Win conference3%
Make the CFP4%
First-round bye<1%
Win it all<1%
  • A CFP bid: 9% with a win vs Iowa, 1% with a loss.
  • Scoreboard watch: root for Minnesota over Indiana — swings a CFP bid between 4% and 9%.

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

8 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.0588th
Success rate39.0%117th
Pass EPA−0.04114th
Rush EPA+0.1243rd
Explosive rate11.8%89th
Quality-drive rate47.1%93rd
Points per quality drive3.885th
Defense
EPA allowed−0.0917th
Success allowed38.1%33rd
Pass EPA allowed−0.1023rd
Rush EPA allowed−0.0818th
Explosive allowed6.8%2nd
Havoc rate14.7%56th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+0.756th
Turnover margin+435th · exp. +1.5
Field position margin+6.4 yd14th
Hidden points / game+4.6banked
Luck, wins−0.55.5 earned
One-score record1–0flipped 4–4
Rush rate over expected+3.8%31st
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+8.133rd
Schedule played+8.010th
Schedule remaining−3.479th
Full schedule+3.950th
Pregame expected wins2.0of 8

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 3Wk 6Wk 9
Ours 33rd · +8.1AP 25thWeek 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageTCUNorth CarolinaUNLVMemphisStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABKansasGeorgia StatePurdueFresno StateMiamiMichigan StateToledoOklahomaUTEPColorado StateWyomingTroySam HoustonTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonOld DominionLouisiana TechSouthern MissArkansasKentuckyIowa StateAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateOregonBoise StateCincinnatiBoston CollegeNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateIowaNorthern IllinoisMichiganWestern MichiganFloridaFlorida AtlanticLouisianaAuburnBaylorNorthwesternBYUMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateSouth CarolinaKent StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLACharlotteOhio StateBall StatePittsburghMiami (OH)NebraskaOhioWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaSyracuseUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyArmyWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameOle MissLouisvilleSMUWISgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Wisconsinoff +0.05 88thdef −0.09 allowed · 17th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.