Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Hawai'i
2–6 FBS · Mountain West · this season
Rating
−8.3
Rank
107
Résumé
129
Projected wins
4.4▼ 2.2 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%
Schedule
our line · the market · graded at the early week lineDateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Model on HAW games: 4–3–1 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 2–2 · as the dog 2–1 · home 0–0, away 4–3 · avg gap to the market +3.9 · closer than the market 6 of 8
Outlook
from 10,000 season simulationsProjected wins
4.42–6 banked, 4 to play · preseason 6.6
Bowl (6+)8%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%
The 4 games left add 2.4 expected wins.
Playoff picture
Reach title game0%
Win conference0%
Make the CFP0%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%
Full bracket on the playoffs page.
Offense and defense
8 games · rank of 138 FBSrank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.02101st
Success rate40.7%98th
Pass EPA+0.0484th
Rush EPA−0.03114th
Explosive rate10.6%115th
Quality-drive rate46.1%97th
Points per quality drive3.3120th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.1098th
Success allowed43.9%102nd
Pass EPA allowed+0.16108th
Rush EPA allowed+0.0681st
Explosive allowed13.1%95th
Havoc rate12.6%99th
Special teams, luck and schedule
through the latest boardrank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+0.658th
Turnover margin+165th · exp. +1.5
Field position margin+0.7 yd71st
Hidden points / game+0.9banked
Luck, wins−1.13.1 earned
One-score record0–1flipped 3–5
Rush rate over expected−15.1%138th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−8.3107th
Schedule played−7.5129th
Schedule remaining−10.7128th
Full schedule−8.6132nd
Pregame expected wins2.9of 8
Ranking by week
ours vs the AP pollOurs 107th · −8.3Week 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
Hawai'ioff +0.02 101stdef +0.10 allowed · 98th
Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.
Hawai'ioff +0.02 101stdef +0.10 allowed · 98th
Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.
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