Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Hawai'i

2–6 FBS · Mountain West · this season
Rating
−8.3
Rank
107
Résumé
129
Projected wins
4.4▼ 2.2 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Aug 298/29at StanfordSTANHAW +5.6HAW +5.5L 27–3749HAW · L
Sat, Sep 59/5UNLVUNLVHAW +6.5HAW +3.0L 6–2143UNLV · W
Sat, Sep 129/12New Mexico StateNMSUHAW −9.6HAW −10.0W 29–1957HAW · Push
Sat, Sep 269/26at WyomingWYOHAW −9.7HAW −5.5L 10–2728HAW · L
Sat, Oct 310/3San José StateSJSUHAW −1.4HAW −3.0L 16–2061SJSU · W
Sat, Oct 1010/10at Arizona StateASUHAW +17.5HAW +21.5L 12–3030HAW · W
Sat, Oct 1710/17New MexicoUNMHAW +19.3HAW +14.5L 10–2128UNM · L
Sat, Oct 2410/24at Northern IllinoisNIUHAW −7.7HAW −4.0W 56–2163HAW · W
Sat, Nov 711/7at UTEPUTEPHAW −11.6—wk 10
Sat, Nov 2111/21at NevadaNEVHAW +4.3—wk 12

Model on HAW games: 4–3–1 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 2–2 · as the dog 2–1 · home 0–0, away 4–3 · avg gap to the market +3.9 · closer than the market 6 of 8

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
4.42–6 banked, 4 to play · preseason 6.6
Bowl (6+)8%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 4 games left add 2.4 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game0%
Win conference0%
Make the CFP0%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

8 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.02101st
Success rate40.7%98th
Pass EPA+0.0484th
Rush EPA−0.03114th
Explosive rate10.6%115th
Quality-drive rate46.1%97th
Points per quality drive3.3120th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.1098th
Success allowed43.9%102nd
Pass EPA allowed+0.16108th
Rush EPA allowed+0.0681st
Explosive allowed13.1%95th
Havoc rate12.6%99th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+0.658th
Turnover margin+165th · exp. +1.5
Field position margin+0.7 yd71st
Hidden points / game+0.9banked
Luck, wins−1.13.1 earned
One-score record0–1flipped 3–5
Rush rate over expected−15.1%138th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−8.3107th
Schedule played−7.5129th
Schedule remaining−10.7128th
Full schedule−8.6132nd
Pregame expected wins2.9of 8

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 3Wk 6Wk 9
Ours 107th · −8.3Week 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageTCUNorth CarolinaUNLVMemphisStanfordFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABKansasGeorgia StatePurdueFresno StateMiamiMichigan StateToledoOklahomaUTEPColorado StateWyomingTroySam HoustonTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonOld DominionLouisiana TechSouthern MissArkansasKentuckyIowa StateAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateOregonBoise StateCincinnatiBoston CollegeNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateIowaNorthern IllinoisMichiganWestern MichiganFloridaFlorida AtlanticLouisianaAuburnBaylorNorthwesternBYUMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateSouth CarolinaKent StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLACharlotteOhio StateBall StatePittsburghMiami (OH)NebraskaOhioWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaSyracuseUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyArmyWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUHAWgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Hawai'ioff +0.02 101stdef +0.10 allowed · 98th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.