Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

North Dakota State
6–2 FBS · Mountain West · this season
Rating
+4.8
Rank
46
Résumé
24
Projected wins
9.4▲ 3.2 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%
Schedule
our line · the market · graded at the early week lineDateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Model on NDSU games: 5–2 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 3–1 · as the dog 2–1 · home 3–0, away 2–2 · avg gap to the market +5.7 · closer than the market 1 of 7
Outlook
from 10,000 season simulationsProjected wins
9.46–2 banked, 4 to play · preseason 6.3
Bowl (6+)100%
9+ wins52%
11+ wins0%
The 4 games left add 3.4 expected wins.
Playoff picture
Reach title game0%
Win conference0%
Make the CFP0%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%
Full bracket on the playoffs page.
Offense and defense
8 games · rank of 138 FBSrank of 138
Offense
EPA per play−0.01113th
Success rate39.5%113th
Pass EPA+0.0677th
Rush EPA−0.07123rd
Explosive rate13.2%57th
Quality-drive rate52.4%60th
Points per quality drive3.5104th
Defense
EPA allowed−0.165th
Success allowed35.7%20th
Pass EPA allowed−0.311st
Rush EPA allowed−0.0631st
Explosive allowed11.6%72nd
Havoc rate17.1%17th
Special teams, luck and schedule
through the latest boardrank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+5.52nd
Turnover margin+94th · exp. +6.5
Field position margin+0.2 yd74th
Hidden points / game+2.3banked
Luck, wins−0.76.7 earned
One-score record1–2flipped 7–1
Rush rate over expected+4.9%22nd
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+4.846th
Schedule played−5.2112th
Schedule remaining−15.2138th
Full schedule−8.8134th
Pregame expected wins5.1of 8
Ranking by week
ours vs the AP pollOurs 46th · +4.8Week 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
North Dakota Stateoff −0.01 113thdef −0.16 allowed · 5th
Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.
North Dakota Stateoff −0.01 113thdef −0.16 allowed · 5th
Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.

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