Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

North Dakota State

6–2 FBS · Mountain West · this season
Rating
+4.8
Rank
46
Résumé
24
Projected wins
9.4▲ 3.2 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Aug 298/29Jacksonville StateJXSTNDSU −0.9NDSU −7.0W 33–777JXST · L
Sat, Sep 59/5FordhamFordhamNDSU −28.9NDSU −41.5W 38–087
Sat, Sep 129/12at Air ForceAFNDSU −11.3NDSU −5.5W 38–3235NDSU · W
Sat, Sep 199/19at Sacramento StateSACNDSU −9.1NDSU −27.5W 31–1059SAC · W
Sat, Oct 310/3WyomingWYONDSU −18.6NDSU −18.5W 28–079NDSU · W
Sat, Oct 1010/10at UNLVUNLVNDSU −6.5NDSU −3.5L 7–1348NDSU · L
Sat, Oct 1710/17NevadaNEVNDSU −12.3NDSU −15.5W 31–1754NEV · W
Sat, Oct 2410/24at New MexicoUNMNDSU +6.1NDSU +4.5L 16–2148UNM · W
Sat, Oct 3110/31UTEPUTEPNDSU −24.1NDSU −23.5NDSU −23.5Pass
Sat, Nov 1411/14at Hawai'iHAWNDSU −9.4—wk 11

Model on NDSU games: 5–2 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 3–1 · as the dog 2–1 · home 3–0, away 2–2 · avg gap to the market +5.7 · closer than the market 1 of 7

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
9.46–2 banked, 4 to play · preseason 6.3
Bowl (6+)100%
9+ wins52%
11+ wins0%

The 4 games left add 3.4 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game0%
Win conference0%
Make the CFP0%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

8 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play−0.01113th
Success rate39.5%113th
Pass EPA+0.0677th
Rush EPA−0.07123rd
Explosive rate13.2%57th
Quality-drive rate52.4%60th
Points per quality drive3.5104th
Defense
EPA allowed−0.165th
Success allowed35.7%20th
Pass EPA allowed−0.311st
Rush EPA allowed−0.0631st
Explosive allowed11.6%72nd
Havoc rate17.1%17th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+5.52nd
Turnover margin+94th · exp. +6.5
Field position margin+0.2 yd74th
Hidden points / game+2.3banked
Luck, wins−0.76.7 earned
One-score record1–2flipped 7–1
Rush rate over expected+4.9%22nd
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+4.846th
Schedule played−5.2112th
Schedule remaining−15.2138th
Full schedule−8.8134th
Pregame expected wins5.1of 8

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 1Wk 4Wk 6Wk 9
Ours 46th · +4.8Week 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageTCUNorth CarolinaUNLVMemphisStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABKansasGeorgia StatePurdueFresno StateMiamiMichigan StateToledoOklahomaUTEPColorado StateWyomingTroySam HoustonTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonOld DominionLouisiana TechSouthern MissArkansasKentuckyIowa StateAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateOregonBoise StateCincinnatiBoston CollegeNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateIowaNorthern IllinoisMichiganWestern MichiganFloridaFlorida AtlanticLouisianaAuburnBaylorNorthwesternBYUMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateSouth CarolinaKent StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLACharlotteOhio StateBall StatePittsburghMiami (OH)NebraskaOhioWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaSyracuseUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyArmyWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUNDSUgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
North Dakota Stateoff −0.01 113thdef −0.16 allowed · 5th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.