Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

UNLV

4–3 FBS · Mountain West · this season
Rating
−1.5
Rank
78
Résumé
61
Projected wins
6.9▼ 0.8 vs preseason
CFP odds
<1%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Aug 298/29MemphisMEMUNLV −6.5UNLV −5.5L 21–2745MEM · W
Sat, Sep 59/5at Hawai'iHAWUNLV −6.5UNLV −3.0W 21–658UNLV · W
Sat, Sep 129/12at North TexasUNTUNLV +1.8UNLV −5.0L 6–4428UNT · W
Sat, Sep 269/26at AkronAKRUNLV −13.2UNLV −14.0W 38–1076AKR · L
Sat, Oct 310/3CaliforniaCALUNLV −8.5UNLV −2.5W 39–3157UNLV · W
Sat, Oct 1010/10North Dakota StateNDSUUNLV +6.5UNLV +3.5W 13–752NDSU · L
Sat, Oct 1710/17at Air ForceAFUNLV +2.7UNLV PKL 31–4142AF · W
Sat, Oct 3110/31Northern IllinoisNIUUNLV −20.0UNLV −22.0NIU +22.5Pass
Sat, Nov 711/7WyomingWYOUNLV −6.1—wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14at New MexicoUNMUNLV +14.9—wk 11
Sat, Nov 2811/28NevadaNEVUNLV −2.0—wk 13

Model on UNLV games: 5–2 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 2–1 · as the dog 3–1 · home 3–1, away 2–1 · avg gap to the market +3.7 · closer than the market 4 of 7

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
6.94–3 banked, 5 to play · preseason 7.7
Bowl (6+)91%
9+ wins5%
11+ wins0%

The 5 games left add 2.9 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game34%
Win conference13%
Make the CFP<1%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

7 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.0398th
Success rate38.0%124th
Pass EPA+0.0482nd
Rush EPA+0.01100th
Explosive rate11.2%103rd
Quality-drive rate42.0%121st
Points per quality drive3.695th
Defense
EPA allowed−0.0048th
Success allowed40.2%53rd
Pass EPA allowed−0.0928th
Rush EPA allowed+0.0792nd
Explosive allowed14.0%116th
Havoc rate12.9%94th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+0.467th
Turnover margin+620th · exp. +3.5
Field position margin+2.4 yd44th
Hidden points / game+2.7banked
Luck, wins+0.43.6 earned
One-score record2–1flipped 3–4
Rush rate over expected+4.7%26th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−1.578th
Schedule played−4.5102nd
Schedule remaining−8.2116th
Full schedule−6.1113th
Pregame expected wins3.6of 7

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 3Wk 6Wk 9
Ours 78th · −1.5Week 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageTCUNorth CarolinaMemphisStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABKansasGeorgia StatePurdueFresno StateMiamiMichigan StateToledoOklahomaUTEPColorado StateWyomingTroySam HoustonTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonOld DominionLouisiana TechSouthern MissArkansasKentuckyIowa StateAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateOregonBoise StateCincinnatiBoston CollegeNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateIowaNorthern IllinoisMichiganWestern MichiganFloridaFlorida AtlanticLouisianaAuburnBaylorNorthwesternBYUMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateSouth CarolinaKent StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLACharlotteOhio StateBall StatePittsburghMiami (OH)NebraskaOhioWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaSyracuseUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyArmyWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUUNLVgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
UNLVoff +0.03 98thdef −0.00 allowed · 48th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.