Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

UNLV
4–3 FBS · Mountain West · this season
Rating
−1.5
Rank
78
Résumé
61
Projected wins
6.9▼ 0.8 vs preseason
CFP odds
<1%
Schedule
our line · the market · graded at the early week lineDateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Model on UNLV games: 5–2 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 2–1 · as the dog 3–1 · home 3–1, away 2–1 · avg gap to the market +3.7 · closer than the market 4 of 7
Outlook
from 10,000 season simulationsProjected wins
6.94–3 banked, 5 to play · preseason 7.7
Bowl (6+)91%
9+ wins5%
11+ wins0%
The 5 games left add 2.9 expected wins.
Playoff picture
Reach title game34%
Win conference13%
Make the CFP<1%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%
Full bracket on the playoffs page.
Offense and defense
7 games · rank of 138 FBSrank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.0398th
Success rate38.0%124th
Pass EPA+0.0482nd
Rush EPA+0.01100th
Explosive rate11.2%103rd
Quality-drive rate42.0%121st
Points per quality drive3.695th
Defense
EPA allowed−0.0048th
Success allowed40.2%53rd
Pass EPA allowed−0.0928th
Rush EPA allowed+0.0792nd
Explosive allowed14.0%116th
Havoc rate12.9%94th
Special teams, luck and schedule
through the latest boardrank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+0.467th
Turnover margin+620th · exp. +3.5
Field position margin+2.4 yd44th
Hidden points / game+2.7banked
Luck, wins+0.43.6 earned
One-score record2–1flipped 3–4
Rush rate over expected+4.7%26th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−1.578th
Schedule played−4.5102nd
Schedule remaining−8.2116th
Full schedule−6.1113th
Pregame expected wins3.6of 7
Ranking by week
ours vs the AP pollOurs 78th · −1.5Week 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
UNLVoff +0.03 98thdef −0.00 allowed · 48th
Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.
UNLVoff +0.03 98thdef −0.00 allowed · 48th
Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.

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