Week 5 report · Sat, Oct 3 · 2026 Week 5
San José State
4–5 · Ours #118 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
20–16FinalWe had SJSU 26 – HAW 27
Hawai'i
2–6 · Ours #122 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.HAW 54%SJSU won
HAW 54%SJSU wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at HAW −4.HAW −3oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −1.4 · SJSU covered by 7
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 53.1.50.5final 36 · under by 14.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.SJSU +3Wmatched the close
SJSU +3Wmatched the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Luke Weaver19/28 · 246 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.2060th pct
- Comp %
- 67.9
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
Micah Alejado23/38 · 341 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.2263rd pct
- Comp %
- 60.5
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| San José Stateoffense | Played like HAW +8.3Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseHawai'i | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 33rd | 37.1%▲1.3 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 37.1%▲6.8 | 68th |
| 33rd | −0.06▲0.09 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.06▲0.19 | 67th |
| 64th | +0.20▲0.29 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.20 | 36th |
| 10th | −0.30▼0.12 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.30▲0.40 | 90th |
| 79th | 0▲1.1 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.9 | 21st |
| Hawai'ioffense | defenseSan José State | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 48th | 41.3%▼0.2 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 41.3%▲2.2 | 52nd |
| 55th | +0.08▲0.05 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.08▼0.10 | 45th |
| 66th | +0.22▲0.16 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.22▼0.40 | 34th |
| 21st | −0.17▼0.18 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.17▲0.28 | 79th |
| 15th | 2▼1.4 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲0.9 | 85th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| San José StateSJSU | Hawai'iHAW | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2955th | Own 2520th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −1.5 pts17th | +2.2 pts96th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6260th | 6363rd |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −4.935th | +4.965th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 08th | 372nd |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.8 pts90th | −1.1 pts5th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. SJSU +4.5: turnovers +5.2, field position +1.6, kicking −2.6, 4th downs +2.5, penalty first downs −2.3. | +4.571st | −4.529th |
Season so far
San José State4–5 · 99th-hardest schedule
L
at USC26–42covered +38.5
at USC26–42covered +38.5W
at Eastern Michigan27–21covered +1.5
at Eastern Michigan27–21covered +1.5Wvs Cal Poly30–20missed −21.5
L
vs Fresno State10–26missed +4.5
vs Fresno State10–26missed +4.5Wat Hawai'i20–16covered +3
at Hawai'i20–16covered +3L
vs Wyoming13–16missed −4
vs Wyoming13–16missed −4W
at UTEP24–11covered −7
at UTEP24–11covered −7L
at Nevada13–28missed +5.5QB change mid-game
at Nevada13–28missed +5.5QB change mid-gameL
vs New Mexico16–21covered +14.5
vs New Mexico16–21covered +14.5Hawai'i2–6 · 128th-hardest schedule
L
at Stanford27–37missed +4.5
at Stanford27–37missed +4.5L
vs UNLV6–21missed +2.5
vs UNLV6–21missed +2.5W
vs New Mexico State29–19covered −7.5
vs New Mexico State29–19covered −7.5Lat Wyoming10–27missed −2
at Wyoming10–27missed −2Lvs San José State16–20missed −3
vs San José State16–20missed −3L
at Arizona State12–30covered +21
at Arizona State12–30covered +21Lvs New Mexico10–21covered +14.5
vs New Mexico10–21covered +14.5W
at Northern Illinois56–21covered −3
at Northern Illinois56–21covered −3Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 3, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is