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Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTupdated
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Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Arizona State

4–3 FBS · Big 12 · this season
Rating
−1.0
Rank
73
Résumé
60
Projected wins
5.7▼ 0.1 vs preseason
CFP odds
<1%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5Morgan StateMorgan StateASU −31.4ASU −43.5W 70–791
Sat, Sep 129/12at Texas A&MTA&MASU +19.8ASU +14.5L 20–4857TA&M · W
Sat, Sep 199/19at KansasKUASU −1.2ASU −5.5W 24–1737KU · L
Sat, Oct 310/3BaylorBAYASU −1.8ASU −4.0L 19–5530BAY · W
Sat, Oct 1010/10Hawai'iHAWASU −17.5ASU −21.5W 30–1270HAW · W
Sat, Oct 1710/17at Texas TechTTUASU +14.0ASU +14.5L 25–5322ASU · L
Sat, Oct 2410/24Kansas StateKSUASU +6.2ASU +3.5W 28–1764KSU · L
Sat, Oct 3110/31at BYUBYUASU +18.0ASU +16.5BYU −16.5Pass
Sat, Nov 711/7ColoradoCOLOASU −6.2—wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14at UCFUCFASU +5.6—wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21Oklahoma StateOKSTASU +5.5—wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28at ArizonaARIZASU +17.1ASU +4.5wk 13

Model on ASU games: 3–3 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 1–1 · as the dog 2–2 · home 1–1, away 2–2 · avg gap to the market +3.7 · closer than the market 3 of 6

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
5.74–3 banked, 5 to play · preseason 5.8
Bowl (6+)20%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 5 games left add 1.7 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game<1%
Win conference<1%
Make the CFP<1%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

7 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.02103rd
Success rate42.1%77th
Pass EPA+0.0487th
Rush EPA−0.01110th
Explosive rate15.1%22nd
Quality-drive rate42.7%116th
Points per quality drive3.982nd
Defense
EPA allowed−0.0240th
Success allowed39.6%44th
Pass EPA allowed−0.0437th
Rush EPA allowed+0.0162nd
Explosive allowed10.8%43rd
Havoc rate16.5%27th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game−1.0103rd
Turnover margin072nd · exp. −2.0
Field position margin−2.1 yd106th
Hidden points / game−4.6gave up
Luck, wins+0.33.7 earned
One-score record1–0flipped 3–4
Rush rate over expected−6.0%117th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−1.073rd
Schedule played+5.130th
Schedule remaining+5.743rd
Full schedule+5.434th
Pregame expected wins2.8of 7

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 3Wk 6Wk 9
Ours 73rd · −1.0Week 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageTCUNorth CarolinaUNLVMemphisStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABKansasGeorgia StatePurdueFresno StateMiamiMichigan StateToledoOklahomaUTEPColorado StateWyomingTroySam HoustonTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonOld DominionLouisiana TechSouthern MissArkansasKentuckyIowa StateAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateOregonBoise StateCincinnatiBoston CollegeNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateIowaNorthern IllinoisMichiganWestern MichiganFloridaFlorida AtlanticLouisianaAuburnBaylorNorthwesternBYUMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganSouth CarolinaKent StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLACharlotteOhio StateBall StatePittsburghMiami (OH)NebraskaOhioWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaSyracuseUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyArmyWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUASUgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Arizona Stateoff +0.02 103rddef −0.02 allowed · 40th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.