Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

New Mexico

6–1 FBS · Mountain West · this season
Rating
+6.7
Rank
39
Résumé
19
Projected wins
10.0▲ 4.4 vs preseason
CFP odds
20%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5Central MichiganCMUUNM −8.2UNM −10.5W 38–781CMU · L
Sat, Sep 129/12MercyhurstMercyhurstUNM −38.1UNM −42.5W 70–785
Sat, Sep 199/19at OklahomaOUUNM +22.8UNM +21.5L 6–1438UNM · W
Sat, Sep 269/26at New Mexico StateNMSUUNM −11.6UNM −13.5W 42–1877NMSU · L
Sat, Oct 310/3UTEPUTEPUNM −27.1UNM −22.5W 61–790UNM · W
Sat, Oct 1710/17at Hawai'iHAWUNM −19.3UNM −14.5W 21–1073UNM · L
Sat, Oct 2410/24North Dakota StateNDSUUNM −6.1UNM −4.5W 21–1653UNM · W
Sat, Oct 3110/31at San José StateSJSUUNM −17.3UNM −14.5UNM −14.5Pass
Fri, Nov 611/6at NevadaNEVUNM −10.1—wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14UNLVUNLVUNM −14.9—wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21at WyomingWYOUNM −14.9—wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28Air ForceAFUNM −12.1—wk 13

Model on UNM games: 3–3 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 2–1 · as the dog 1–2 · home 2–1, away 1–2 · avg gap to the market +2.5 · closer than the market 2 of 6

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
10.06–1 banked, 5 to play · preseason 5.6
Bowl (6+)100%
9+ wins73%
11+ wins0%

The 5 games left add 4.0 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game90%
Win conference65%
Make the CFP20%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

7 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.0684th
Success rate40.2%104th
Pass EPA+0.0290th
Rush EPA+0.0768th
Explosive rate13.5%49th
Quality-drive rate59.4%17th
Points per quality drive4.075th
Defense
EPA allowed−0.271st
Success allowed31.7%1st
Pass EPA allowed−0.246th
Rush EPA allowed−0.302nd
Explosive allowed11.0%54th
Havoc rate21.0%1st

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+1.050th
Turnover margin+131st · exp. +14.0
Field position margin+12.1 yd1st
Hidden points / game+11.5banked
Luck, wins+0.75.3 earned
One-score record1–1flipped 6–1
Rush rate over expected+13.2%6th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+6.739th
Schedule played−6.9124th
Schedule remaining−5.896th
Full schedule−6.4118th
Pregame expected wins3.9of 7

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 3Wk 6Wk 9
Ours 39th · +6.7Week 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageTCUNorth CarolinaUNLVMemphisStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABKansasGeorgia StatePurdueFresno StateMiamiMichigan StateToledoOklahomaUTEPColorado StateWyomingTroySam HoustonTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonOld DominionLouisiana TechSouthern MissArkansasKentuckyIowa StateAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateOregonBoise StateCincinnatiBoston CollegeNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateIowaNorthern IllinoisMichiganWestern MichiganFloridaFlorida AtlanticLouisianaAuburnBaylorNorthwesternBYUMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateCentral MichiganArizona StateSouth CarolinaKent StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLACharlotteOhio StateBall StatePittsburghMiami (OH)NebraskaOhioWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaSyracuseUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyArmyWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUUNMgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
New Mexicooff +0.06 84thdef −0.27 allowed · 1st

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.