Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

New Mexico
6–1 FBS · Mountain West · this season
Rating
+6.7
Rank
39
Résumé
19
Projected wins
10.0▲ 4.4 vs preseason
CFP odds
20%
Schedule
our line · the market · graded at the early week lineDateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Model on UNM games: 3–3 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 2–1 · as the dog 1–2 · home 2–1, away 1–2 · avg gap to the market +2.5 · closer than the market 2 of 6
Outlook
from 10,000 season simulationsProjected wins
10.06–1 banked, 5 to play · preseason 5.6
Bowl (6+)100%
9+ wins73%
11+ wins0%
The 5 games left add 4.0 expected wins.
Playoff picture
Reach title game90%
Win conference65%
Make the CFP20%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%
- A CFP bid: 23% with a win vs San José State, 1% with a loss.
- Scoreboard watch: root for Texas State over Boise State — swings a CFP bid between 17% and 25%.
Full bracket on the playoffs page.
Offense and defense
7 games · rank of 138 FBSrank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.0684th
Success rate40.2%104th
Pass EPA+0.0290th
Rush EPA+0.0768th
Explosive rate13.5%49th
Quality-drive rate59.4%17th
Points per quality drive4.075th
Defense
EPA allowed−0.271st
Success allowed31.7%1st
Pass EPA allowed−0.246th
Rush EPA allowed−0.302nd
Explosive allowed11.0%54th
Havoc rate21.0%1st
Special teams, luck and schedule
through the latest boardrank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+1.050th
Turnover margin+131st · exp. +14.0
Field position margin+12.1 yd1st
Hidden points / game+11.5banked
Luck, wins+0.75.3 earned
One-score record1–1flipped 6–1
Rush rate over expected+13.2%6th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+6.739th
Schedule played−6.9124th
Schedule remaining−5.896th
Full schedule−6.4118th
Pregame expected wins3.9of 7
Ranking by week
ours vs the AP pollOurs 39th · +6.7Week 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
New Mexicooff +0.06 84thdef −0.27 allowed · 1st
Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.
New Mexicooff +0.06 84thdef −0.27 allowed · 1st
Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.

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