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Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTupdated
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Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Sacramento State

2–7 FBS · Mid-American · this season
Rating
−22.0
Rank
137
Résumé
138
Projected wins
2.3▼ 3.7 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Aug 298/29at Eastern MichiganEMUSAC −1.9SAC +9.5L 17–2844SAC · L
Sat, Sep 59/5Mississippi Valley StateMississippi Valley StateSAC −27.3SAC −38.5W 52–071
Sat, Sep 129/12at Fresno StateFRESSAC +4.0SAC +18.5L 3–498SAC · L
Sat, Sep 199/19North Dakota StateNDSUSAC +9.1SAC +27.5L 10–3142SAC · W
Sat, Sep 269/26MassachusettsMASSSAC −8.0SAC +5.5L 6–3525SAC · L
Sat, Oct 1010/10at Bowling GreenBGSUSAC +3.1SAC +7.0L 10–3830SAC · L
Sat, Oct 1710/17OhioOHIOSAC +15.7SAC +14.5L 7–4811OHIO · W
Sat, Oct 2410/24at Ball StateBALLSAC +12.3SAC +11.5L 17–3424BALL · W
Fri, Oct 3010/30Kent StateKENTSAC +6.4SAC +10.5W 31–1069SAC · W
Wed, Nov 411/4ToledoTOLSAC +23.5—wk 10
Wed, Nov 1111/11at Central MichiganCMUSAC +13.6—wk 11
Sat, Nov 2811/28at Hawai'iHAWSAC +23.3—wk 13

Model on SAC games: 4–4 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 2–0 · as the dog 2–4 · home 3–1, away 1–3 · avg gap to the market +7.9 · closer than the market 1 of 8

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
2.32–7 banked, 3 to play · preseason 6.0
Bowl (6+)0%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 3 games left add 0.3 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game0%
Win conference0%
Make the CFP0%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

9 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play−0.17137th
Success rate36.3%132nd
Pass EPA−0.21135th
Rush EPA−0.12132nd
Explosive rate7.6%136th
Quality-drive rate33.3%137th
Points per quality drive3.3122nd
Defense
EPA allowed+0.0260th
Success allowed39.8%49th
Pass EPA allowed+0.0057th
Rush EPA allowed+0.0472nd
Explosive allowed14.2%117th
Havoc rate10.4%130th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+1.145th
Turnover margin−4109th · exp. −3.0
Field position margin+0.7 yd72nd
Hidden points / game−4.4gave up
Luck, wins−0.22.2 earned
One-score record0–0
Rush rate over expected−3.2%88th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−22.0137th
Schedule played−7.7130th
Schedule remaining−8.2117th
Full schedule−7.8127th
Pregame expected wins3.6of 9

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 1Wk 4Wk 6Wk 9
Ours 137th · −22.0Week 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageTCUNorth CarolinaUNLVMemphisStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABKansasGeorgia StatePurdueFresno StateMiamiMichigan StateToledoOklahomaUTEPColorado StateWyomingTroySam HoustonTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonOld DominionLouisiana TechSouthern MissArkansasKentuckyIowa StateAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateOregonBoise StateCincinnatiBoston CollegeNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateIowaNorthern IllinoisMichiganWestern MichiganFloridaFlorida AtlanticLouisianaAuburnBaylorNorthwesternBYUMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateSouth CarolinaKent StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLACharlotteOhio StateBall StatePittsburghMiami (OH)NebraskaOhioWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaSyracuseUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyArmyWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUSACgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Sacramento Stateoff −0.17 137thdef +0.02 allowed · 60th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.