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Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTupdated
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Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

UTEP

1–6 FBS · Mountain West · this season
Rating
−19.8
Rank
135
Résumé
126
Projected wins
2.2▼ 1.2 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Fri, Sep 49/4at OklahomaOUUTEP +30.8UTEP +41.5L 0–5133UTEP · L
Sat, Sep 129/12Texas SouthernTexas SouthernUTEP −29.7UTEP −27.0W 51–1065
Sat, Sep 199/19at MichiganMICHUTEP +37.1UTEP +36.5L 17–5213UTEP · W
Sat, Sep 269/26Oregon StateORSTUTEP +5.4UTEP +11.0L 7–3322UTEP · L
Sat, Oct 310/3at New MexicoUNMUTEP +27.1UTEP +22.5L 7–6110UNM · W
Sat, Oct 1010/10NevadaNEVUTEP +8.5UTEP +9.5L 13–3034UTEP · L
Sat, Oct 1710/17San José StateSJSUUTEP +5.0UTEP +8.5L 11–2451UTEP · L
Sat, Oct 3110/31at North Dakota StateNDSUUTEP +24.1UTEP +23.5NDSU −23.5Pass
Sat, Nov 711/7Hawai'iHAWUTEP +11.6—wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14WyomingWYOUTEP +8.3—wk 11
Fri, Nov 2011/20at Air ForceAFUTEP +20.0—wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28at Northern IllinoisNIUUTEP PK—wk 13

Model on UTEP games: 2–4 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 1–0 · as the dog 1–4 · home 1–3, away 1–1 · avg gap to the market +4.3 · closer than the market 1 of 6

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
2.21–6 banked, 5 to play · preseason 3.4
Bowl (6+)0%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 5 games left add 1.2 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game<1%
Win conference0%
Make the CFP0%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

7 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play−0.10134th
Success rate35.4%134th
Pass EPA−0.20133rd
Rush EPA−0.00108th
Explosive rate11.2%100th
Quality-drive rate36.1%134th
Points per quality drive3.3119th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.17124th
Success allowed49.1%133rd
Pass EPA allowed+0.26124th
Rush EPA allowed+0.10101st
Explosive allowed13.3%99th
Havoc rate11.2%125th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game−3.5132nd
Turnover margin−9134th · exp. −2.0
Field position margin+1.0 yd66th
Hidden points / game−7.9gave up
Luck, wins−0.21.2 earned
One-score record0–0
Rush rate over expected+7.6%13th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−19.8135th
Schedule played+2.346th
Schedule remaining−7.6113th
Full schedule−2.279th
Pregame expected wins1.7of 7

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 3Wk 6Wk 9
Ours 135th · −19.8Week 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageTCUNorth CarolinaUNLVMemphisStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABKansasGeorgia StatePurdueFresno StateMiamiMichigan StateToledoOklahomaColorado StateWyomingTroySam HoustonTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonOld DominionLouisiana TechSouthern MissArkansasKentuckyIowa StateAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateOregonBoise StateCincinnatiBoston CollegeNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateIowaNorthern IllinoisMichiganWestern MichiganFloridaFlorida AtlanticLouisianaAuburnBaylorNorthwesternBYUMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateSouth CarolinaKent StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLACharlotteOhio StateBall StatePittsburghMiami (OH)NebraskaOhioWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaSyracuseUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyArmyWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUUTEPgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
UTEPoff −0.10 134thdef +0.17 allowed · 124th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.