Week 1 report · Sat, Sep 5 · 2026 Week 1
UNLV
4–3 · Ours #52 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
21–6FinalWe had UNLV 33 – HAW 27
Hawai'i
2–6 · Ours #88 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.UNLV 65%UNLV won
UNLV 65%UNLV wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at UNLV −3.5.UNLV −2.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −6.5 · UNLV covered by 12.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 59.7.55final 27 · under by 28
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.UNLV −3Wlost 0.5 to the close
UNLV −3Wlost 0.5 to the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Jackson Arnold8/18 · 116 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.2616th pct
- Comp %
- 44.4
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Micah Alejado16/40 · 166 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.2319th pct
- Comp %
- 40.0
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 5
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| UNLVoffense | Played like UNLV +5.0Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseHawai'i | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 38th | 38.7%▲0.8 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 38.7%▲4.9 | 62nd |
| 34th | −0.06▼0.09 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.06▲0.19 | 66th |
| 20th | −0.26▼0.31 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.26▲0.54 | 80th |
| 49th | +0.04▲0.04 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.04▲0.01 | 51st |
| 79th | 0▲1.0 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.9 | 21st |
| Hawai'ioffense | defenseUNLV | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23rd | 34.2%▼8.3 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 34.2%▲7.8 | 77th |
| 19th | −0.17▼0.24 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.17▲0.21 | 81st |
| 19th | −0.27▼0.40 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.27▲0.22 | 81st |
| 45th | 0.00▲0.02 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | 0.00▲0.01 | 55th |
| 41st | 1▼0.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▼0.5 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| UNLVUNLV | Hawai'iHAW | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2844th | Own 2313th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | 0.0 pts39th | −0.9 pts24th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6260th | 7693rd |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +10.880th | −10.820th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 372nd | 251st |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −1.1 pts5th | −0.4 pts26th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. UNLV +4.8: turnovers +2.6, field position +1.6, kicking +0.7, 4th downs −0.8, penalty first downs +0.8. | +4.872nd | −4.828th |
Season so far
UNLV4–3 · 103rd-hardest schedule
L
vs Memphis21–27missed −5
vs Memphis21–27missed −5Wat Hawai'i21–6covered −2.5
at Hawai'i21–6covered −2.5L
at North Texas6–44missed −3
at North Texas6–44missed −3W
at Akron38–10covered −13.5
at Akron38–10covered −13.5W
vs California39–31covered −1
vs California39–31covered −1W
vs North Dakota State13–7covered +2.5
vs North Dakota State13–7covered +2.5L
at Air Force31–41missed −1
at Air Force31–41missed −1Hawai'i2–6 · 128th-hardest schedule
L
at Stanford27–37missed +4.5
at Stanford27–37missed +4.5Lvs UNLV6–21missed +2.5
vs UNLV6–21missed +2.5W
vs New Mexico State29–19covered −7.5
vs New Mexico State29–19covered −7.5L
at Wyoming10–27missed −2
at Wyoming10–27missed −2L
vs San José State16–20missed −3
vs San José State16–20missed −3L
at Arizona State12–30covered +21
at Arizona State12–30covered +21L
vs New Mexico10–21covered +14.5
vs New Mexico10–21covered +14.5W
at Northern Illinois56–21covered −3
at Northern Illinois56–21covered −3Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 5, 8:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is