Week 4 report · Sat, Sep 26 · 2026 Week 4
Hawai'i
2–6 · Ours #109 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
10–27FinalWe had HAW 28 – WYO 18
Wyoming
5–3 · Ours #133 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.HAW 73%WYO won
HAW 73%WYO wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at HAW −5.5.HAW −2oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −9.7 · WYO covered by 19
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 46.3.44final 37 · under by 7
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.No call
Quarterbacksthis game
Micah Alejado28/44 · 226 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.0534th pct
- Comp %
- 63.6
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
Tyler Hughes17/23 · 204 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.6090th pct
- Comp %
- 73.9
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Hawai'ioffense | Played like WYO +20.2Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseWyoming | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50th | 41.8%▲0.4 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 41.8%▲6.0 | 50th |
| 45th | +0.02▼0.02 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.02▲0.12 | 55th |
| 38th | −0.05▼0.14 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.05▲0.09 | 62nd |
| 70th | +0.18▲0.23 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.18▲0.07 | 30th |
| 79th | 0▲0.9 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.2 | 21st |
| Wyomingoffense | defenseHawai'i | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 87th | 54.2%▲11.5 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 54.2%▼12.8 | 13th |
| 89th | +0.39▲0.43 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.39▼0.32 | 11th |
| 90th | +0.60▲0.90 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.60▼0.45 | 10th |
| 77th | +0.23▲0.08 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.23▼0.22 | 23rd |
| 79th | 0▲1.5 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.9 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Hawai'iHAW | WyomingWYO | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2312th | Own 2844th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −1.1 pts22nd | +0.5 pts61st |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6774th | 5951st |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −19.210th | +19.291st |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 127th | 251st |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.5 pts24th | 0.0 pts50th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. WYO +4.1: field position +1.7, kicking +1.1, 4th downs +0.6, penalty first downs +0.8. | −4.131st | +4.169th |
Season so far
Hawai'i2–6 · 128th-hardest schedule
L
at Stanford27–37missed +4.5
at Stanford27–37missed +4.5L
vs UNLV6–21missed +2.5
vs UNLV6–21missed +2.5W
vs New Mexico State29–19covered −7.5
vs New Mexico State29–19covered −7.5Lat Wyoming10–27missed −2
at Wyoming10–27missed −2L
vs San José State16–20missed −3
vs San José State16–20missed −3L
at Arizona State12–30covered +21
at Arizona State12–30covered +21L
vs New Mexico10–21covered +14.5
vs New Mexico10–21covered +14.5W
at Northern Illinois56–21covered −3
at Northern Illinois56–21covered −3Wyoming5–3 · 138th-hardest schedule
L
at Colorado State13–35missed +3
at Colorado State13–35missed +3Wvs Northern Colorado21–13missed −23
L
at Central Michigan10–24missed −1
at Central Michigan10–24missed −1Wvs Hawai'i27–10covered +2
vs Hawai'i27–10covered +2L
at North Dakota State0–28missed +17
at North Dakota State0–28missed +17Wat San José State16–13covered +4
at San José State16–13covered +4Wvs Northern Illinois41–23covered −7
vs Northern Illinois41–23covered −7W
vs Air Force28–14covered +6
vs Air Force28–14covered +6Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.6 · run Sep 26, 2:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is