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Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTupdated
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Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Wyoming

5–3 FBS · Mountain West · this season
Rating
−8.8
Rank
109
Résumé
74
Projected wins
6.6▲ 1.6 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5at Colorado StateCSUWYO +4.1WYO +3.5L 13–3532CSU · W
Sat, Sep 129/12Northern ColoradoNorthern ColoradoWYO −31.1WYO −23.0W 21–1366
Sat, Sep 199/19at Central MichiganCMUWYO +4.6WYO +1.5L 10–2431CMU · W
Sat, Sep 269/26Hawai'iHAWWYO +9.7WYO +5.5W 27–1072HAW · L
Sat, Oct 310/3at North Dakota StateNDSUWYO +18.6WYO +18.5L 0–2822NDSU · W
Fri, Oct 910/9at San José StateSJSUWYO +5.8WYO +7.0W 16–1351WYO · W
Sat, Oct 1710/17Northern IllinoisNIUWYO −7.7WYO −7.5W 41–2354WYO · W
Fri, Oct 2310/23Air ForceAFWYO +8.1WYO +6.0W 28–1452AF · L
Sat, Nov 711/7at UNLVUNLVWYO +6.1—wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14at UTEPUTEPWYO −8.3—wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21New MexicoUNMWYO +14.9—wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28UConnCONNWYO +5.2—wk 13

Model on WYO games: 5–2 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 4–2 · as the dog 1–0 · home 4–0, away 1–2 · avg gap to the market +2.9 · closer than the market 4 of 7

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
6.65–3 banked, 4 to play · preseason 5.0
Bowl (6+)52%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 4 games left add 1.6 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game41%
Win conference10%
Make the CFP0%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

8 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.0491st
Success rate44.5%53rd
Pass EPA−0.11123rd
Rush EPA+0.1625th
Explosive rate14.2%32nd
Quality-drive rate53.2%55th
Points per quality drive3.4111th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.1095th
Success allowed45.9%120th
Pass EPA allowed−0.0152nd
Rush EPA allowed+0.19127th
Explosive allowed10.9%49th
Havoc rate12.3%106th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+0.277th
Turnover margin−3101st · exp. −6.0
Field position margin+5.7 yd17th
Hidden points / game−0.9gave up
Luck, wins+0.64.4 earned
One-score record2–0flipped 3–5
Rush rate over expected+7.8%11th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−8.8109th
Schedule played−9.7138th
Schedule remaining−3.583rd
Full schedule−7.4123rd
Pregame expected wins2.0of 8

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 3Wk 6Wk 9
Ours 109th · −8.8Week 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageTCUNorth CarolinaUNLVMemphisStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABKansasGeorgia StatePurdueFresno StateMiamiMichigan StateToledoOklahomaUTEPColorado StateTroySam HoustonTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonOld DominionLouisiana TechSouthern MissArkansasKentuckyIowa StateAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateOregonBoise StateCincinnatiBoston CollegeNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateIowaNorthern IllinoisMichiganWestern MichiganFloridaFlorida AtlanticLouisianaAuburnBaylorNorthwesternBYUMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateSouth CarolinaKent StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLACharlotteOhio StateBall StatePittsburghMiami (OH)NebraskaOhioWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaSyracuseUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyArmyWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUWYOgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Wyomingoff +0.04 91stdef +0.10 allowed · 95th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.