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Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTupdated
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Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

San José State

4–4 FBS · Mountain West · this season
Rating
−9.9
Rank
115
Résumé
93
Projected wins
5.8▼ 0.1 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Aug 298/29at USCUSCSJSU +27.3SJSU +38.5L 26–4213SJSU · W
Fri, Sep 49/4at Eastern MichiganEMUSJSU +0.8SJSU +3.5W 27–2159SJSU · W
Sat, Sep 129/12Cal PolyCal PolySJSU −36.1SJSU −21.5W 30–2058
Sat, Sep 199/19Fresno StateFRESSJSU +7.4SJSU +7.5L 10–2640SJSU · L
Sat, Oct 310/3at Hawai'iHAWSJSU +1.4SJSU +3.0W 20–1639SJSU · W
Fri, Oct 910/9WyomingWYOSJSU −5.8SJSU −7.0L 13–1650WYO · W
Sat, Oct 1710/17at UTEPUTEPSJSU −5.0SJSU −8.5W 24–1150UTEP · L
Sat, Oct 2410/24at NevadaNEVSJSU +7.6SJSU +5.5L 13–2840NEV · W
Sat, Oct 3110/31New MexicoUNMSJSU +17.3SJSU +14.5UNM −14.5Pass
Sat, Nov 711/7Northern IllinoisNIUSJSU −12.6—wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14at Air ForceAFSJSU +11.9—wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21UNLVUNLVSJSU +4.7—wk 12
Fri, Nov 2711/27North Dakota StateNDSUSJSU +12.3—wk 13

Model on SJSU games: 5–2 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 1–0 · as the dog 4–2 · home 1–2, away 4–0 · avg gap to the market +3.2 · closer than the market 5 of 7

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
5.84–4 banked, 5 to play · preseason 5.9
Bowl (6+)22%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 5 games left add 1.8 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game3%
Win conference1%
Make the CFP0%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

8 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play−0.07129th
Success rate38.0%123rd
Pass EPA−0.04113th
Rush EPA−0.10131st
Explosive rate11.0%106th
Quality-drive rate42.1%120th
Points per quality drive3.4116th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.0259th
Success allowed42.3%81st
Pass EPA allowed−0.0341st
Rush EPA allowed+0.0785th
Explosive allowed10.8%46th
Havoc rate15.9%32nd

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+0.566th
Turnover margin072nd · exp. +3.0
Field position margin−2.1 yd105th
Hidden points / game−1.4gave up
Luck, wins+0.63.4 earned
One-score record2–1flipped 3–5
Rush rate over expected−3.4%92nd
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−9.9115th
Schedule played−5.9118th
Schedule remaining−3.277th
Full schedule−4.898th
Pregame expected wins2.8of 8

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 3Wk 6Wk 9
Ours 115th · −9.9Week 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageTCUNorth CarolinaUNLVMemphisStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABKansasGeorgia StatePurdueFresno StateMiamiMichigan StateToledoOklahomaUTEPColorado StateWyomingTroySam HoustonTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonOld DominionLouisiana TechSouthern MissArkansasKentuckyIowa StateAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateOregonBoise StateCincinnatiBoston CollegeNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateIowaNorthern IllinoisMichiganWestern MichiganFloridaFlorida AtlanticLouisianaAuburnBaylorNorthwesternBYUMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateSouth CarolinaKent StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLACharlotteOhio StateBall StatePittsburghMiami (OH)NebraskaOhioWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaSyracuseUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyArmyWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUSJSUgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
San José Stateoff −0.07 129thdef +0.02 allowed · 59th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.