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Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTupdated
Board · Rankings · CollegeNext: at UNLV · Sat, Oct 31 · 10:30 PM ET →

Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Northern Illinois

0–7 FBS · Mountain West · this season
Rating
−22.9
Rank
138
Résumé
134
Projected wins
1.1▼ 2.4 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5at IowaIOWANIU +27.3NIU +31.5L 0–408NIU · L
Sat, Sep 129/12Illinois StateIllinois StateNIU −30.4NIU +2.5L 24–2847
Sat, Sep 199/19at ArizonaARIZNIU +29.6NIU +35.0L 17–4238NIU · W
Sat, Sep 269/26at Georgia StateGASTNIU +17.5NIU +9.0L 14–3564GAST · W
Sat, Oct 1010/10Air ForceAFNIU +10.5NIU +10.0L 7–2832NIU · L
Sat, Oct 1710/17at WyomingWYONIU +7.7NIU +7.5L 23–4146WYO · W
Sat, Oct 2410/24Hawai'iHAWNIU +7.7NIU +4.0L 21–5637HAW · W
Sat, Oct 3110/31at UNLVUNLVNIU +20.0NIU +22.0NIU +22.5Pass
Sat, Nov 711/7at San José StateSJSUNIU +12.6—wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14NevadaNEVNIU +15.4—wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21at North Dakota StateNDSUNIU +28.4—wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28UTEPUTEPNIU PK—wk 13

Model on NIU games: 4–2 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 3–0 · as the dog 1–2 · home 2–1, away 2–1 · avg gap to the market +4.2 · closer than the market 5 of 6

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
1.10–7 banked, 5 to play · preseason 3.5
Bowl (6+)0%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 5 games left add 1.1 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game<1%
Win conference0%
Make the CFP0%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

7 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.0682nd
Success rate38.4%120th
Pass EPA+0.0293rd
Rush EPA+0.1244th
Explosive rate11.8%87th
Quality-drive rate44.4%105th
Points per quality drive2.5135th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.23132nd
Success allowed52.6%137th
Pass EPA allowed+0.30130th
Rush EPA allowed+0.18124th
Explosive allowed14.5%121st
Havoc rate8.9%138th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game−2.2120th
Turnover margin−6119th · exp. −2.0
Field position margin−2.1 yd103rd
Hidden points / game−3.3gave up
Luck, wins−1.11.1 earned
One-score record0–1flipped 1–6
Rush rate over expected−5.0%108th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−22.9138th
Schedule played0.070th
Schedule remaining−6.5106th
Full schedule−2.982nd
Pregame expected wins1.1of 7

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 3Wk 6Wk 9
Ours 138th · −22.9Week 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageTCUNorth CarolinaUNLVMemphisStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABKansasGeorgia StatePurdueFresno StateMiamiMichigan StateToledoOklahomaUTEPColorado StateWyomingTroySam HoustonTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonOld DominionLouisiana TechSouthern MissArkansasKentuckyIowa StateAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateOregonBoise StateCincinnatiBoston CollegeNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateIowaMichiganWestern MichiganFloridaFlorida AtlanticLouisianaAuburnBaylorNorthwesternBYUMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateSouth CarolinaKent StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLACharlotteOhio StateBall StatePittsburghMiami (OH)NebraskaOhioWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaSyracuseUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyArmyWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUNIUgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Northern Illinoisoff +0.06 82nddef +0.23 allowed · 132nd

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.