Week 0 report · Sat, Aug 29 · 2026 Week 1
Hawai'i
2–6 · Ours #88 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
27–37FinalWe had HAW 24 – STAN 30
Stanford
4–5 · Ours #82 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.STAN 63%STAN won
STAN 63%STAN wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at STAN −5.5.STAN −4.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −5.6 · STAN covered by 5.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 53.9.48.5final 64 · over by 15.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.HAW +5.5Lbeat the close by 1.0
HAW +5.5Lbeat the close by 1.0Quarterbacksthis game
Micah Alejado30/50 · 269 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.2161st pct
- Comp %
- 60.0
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
Davis Warren22/34 · 310 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.2666th pct
- Comp %
- 64.7
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Hawai'ioffense | Played like STAN +3.7Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseStanford | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32nd | 37.0%▼5.1 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 37.0%▲16.4 | 68th |
| 65th | +0.16▲0.14 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.16▲0.15 | 35th |
| 63rd | +0.19▲0.13 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.19▲0.12 | 37th |
| 53rd | +0.06▲0.09 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.06▲0.25 | 47th |
| 79th | 0▲0.9 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.7 | 21st |
| Stanfordoffense | defenseHawai'i | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 62nd | 45.1%▲11.5 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 45.1%▼2.4 | 38th |
| 66th | +0.17▲0.28 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.17▼0.07 | 34th |
| 70th | +0.26▲0.36 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.26▼0.07 | 30th |
| 55th | +0.08▲0.18 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.08▼0.04 | 45th |
| 79th | 0▲0.9 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.9 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Hawai'iHAW | StanfordSTAN | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2420th | Own 2743rd |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | 0.0 pts39th | −2.5 pts5th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 7387th | 7183rd |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +0.351st | −0.349th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 251st | 127th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.7 pts87th | −0.2 pts36th |
| Return touchdownsReturn TDsDefensive and special-teams touchdowns. | 043rd | 192nd |
| SafetiesSafeties scored. | 049th | 199th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. STAN +4.5: field position +1.1, kicking −1.8, 4th downs −1.2, penalty first downs −0.8, return touchdowns +4.2, safeties +2.9. | −4.529th | +4.571st |
Season so far
Hawai'i2–6 · 128th-hardest schedule
Lat Stanford27–37missed +4.5
at Stanford27–37missed +4.5L
vs UNLV6–21missed +2.5
vs UNLV6–21missed +2.5W
vs New Mexico State29–19covered −7.5
vs New Mexico State29–19covered −7.5L
at Wyoming10–27missed −2
at Wyoming10–27missed −2L
vs San José State16–20missed −3
vs San José State16–20missed −3L
at Arizona State12–30covered +21
at Arizona State12–30covered +21L
vs New Mexico10–21covered +14.5
vs New Mexico10–21covered +14.5W
at Northern Illinois56–21covered −3
at Northern Illinois56–21covered −3Stanford4–5 · 10th-hardest schedule
Wvs Hawai'i37–27covered −4.5
vs Hawai'i37–27covered −4.5L
vs Miami6–45missed +24.5
vs Miami6–45missed +24.5L
at Duke7–35missed +10
at Duke7–35missed +10W
vs Georgia Tech34–27covered +3
vs Georgia Tech34–27covered +3L
at Wake Forest3–57missed +14.5
at Wake Forest3–57missed +14.5L
at Notre Dame7–58missed +39.5
at Notre Dame7–58missed +39.5Wvs Elon34–7missed −34
W
vs NC State31–28covered +7.5
vs NC State31–28covered +7.5L
at Louisville24–52missed +22.5
at Louisville24–52missed +22.5Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Aug 29, 4:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is