Week 8 report · Sat, Oct 24 · 2026 Week 8
Hawai'i
2–6 · Ours #118 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
56–21FinalWe had HAW 29 – NIU 22
Northern Illinois
0–7 · Ours #136 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.HAW 69%HAW won
HAW 69%HAW wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at HAW −6.5.HAW −3oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −7.7 · HAW covered by 32
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 50.8.48.5final 77 · over by 28.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.HAW −4Wlost 1.0 to the close
HAW −4Wlost 1.0 to the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Micah Alejado22/32 · 323 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.5085th pct
- Comp %
- 68.8
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
Taron Dickens17/26 · 171 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.3676th pct
- Comp %
- 65.4
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Hawai'ioffense | Played like HAW +18.5Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseNorthern Illinois | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 92nd | 58.3%▲19.2 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 58.3%▼4.8 | 8th |
| 95th | +0.49▲0.51 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.49▼0.21 | 5th |
| 91st | +0.60▲0.60 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.60▼0.72 | 9th |
| 89th | +0.36▲0.43 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.36▼0.22 | 11th |
| 41st | 1▼0.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.2 | 59th |
| Northern Illinoisoffense | defenseHawai'i | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16th | 31.0%▼2.4 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 31.0%▲13.7 | 84th |
| 70th | +0.19▲0.20 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.19▼0.09 | 30th |
| 92nd | +0.63▲0.74 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.63▼0.48 | 8th |
| 17th | −0.21▼0.38 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.21▲0.29 | 83rd |
| 15th | 2▼1.6 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲1.4 | 85th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Hawai'iHAW | Northern IllinoisNIU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3273rd | Own 2742nd |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 4828th | 295th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +2.658th | −2.642nd |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 372nd | 251st |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.3 pts68th | +0.3 pts68th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. HAW +10.3: turnovers +7.8, field position +1.7, penalty first downs +0.8. | +10.390th | −10.310th |
Season so far
Hawai'i2–6 · 128th-hardest schedule
L
at Stanford27–37missed +4.5
at Stanford27–37missed +4.5L
vs UNLV6–21missed +2.5
vs UNLV6–21missed +2.5W
vs New Mexico State29–19covered −7.5
vs New Mexico State29–19covered −7.5L
at Wyoming10–27missed −2
at Wyoming10–27missed −2L
vs San José State16–20missed −3
vs San José State16–20missed −3L
at Arizona State12–30covered +21
at Arizona State12–30covered +21L
vs New Mexico10–21covered +14.5
vs New Mexico10–21covered +14.5Wat Northern Illinois56–21covered −3
at Northern Illinois56–21covered −3Northern Illinois0–7 · 68th-hardest schedule
L
at Iowa0–40missed +31QB change mid-game
at Iowa0–40missed +31QB change mid-gameLvs Illinois State24–28missed +2.5QB change mid-game
L
at Arizona17–42covered +34.5
at Arizona17–42covered +34.5L
at Georgia State14–35missed +10
at Georgia State14–35missed +10L
vs Air Force7–28missed +7
vs Air Force7–28missed +7Lat Wyoming23–41missed +7
at Wyoming23–41missed +7Lvs Hawai'i21–56missed +3
vs Hawai'i21–56missed +3Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 24, 3:20 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is