Week 2 report · Sat, Sep 12 · 2026 Week 2
New Mexico State
3–5 · Ours #109 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
19–29FinalWe had NMSU 23 – HAW 33
Hawai'i
2–6 · Ours #115 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.HAW 72%HAW won
HAW 72%HAW wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at HAW −10.HAW −7.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −9.6 · HAW covered by 2.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 55.5.50final 48 · under by 2
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.HAW −10Plost 2.5 to the close
HAW −10Plost 2.5 to the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Trey Hedden19/36 · 244 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.1823rd pct
- Comp %
- 52.8
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Micah Alejado33/46 · 346 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.1757th pct
- Comp %
- 71.7
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| New Mexico Stateoffense | Played like HAW +3.3Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseHawai'i | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 78th | 50.0%▲13.8 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 50.0%▼8.0 | 22nd |
| 38th | −0.03▲0.10 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.03▲0.16 | 62nd |
| 26th | −0.18▲0.11 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.18▲0.44 | 74th |
| 70th | +0.18▲0.20 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.18▼0.15 | 30th |
| 15th | 2▼0.5 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲1.4 | 85th |
| Hawai'ioffense | defenseNew Mexico State | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 58th | 43.8%▲2.7 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 43.8%▼2.7 | 43rd |
| 52nd | +0.06▲0.03 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.06▼0.04 | 48th |
| 69th | +0.25▲0.20 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.25▼0.25 | 31st |
| 10th | −0.30▼0.33 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.30▲0.34 | 90th |
| 79th | 0▲0.9 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.0 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| New Mexico StateNMSU | Hawai'iHAW | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 192nd | Own 3481st |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | 0.0 pts39th | +1.8 pts91st |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6466th | 7387th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +4.464th | −4.436th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 372nd | 08th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.7 pts15th | +0.5 pts80th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. HAW +11.1: turnovers +5.2, field position +5.3, kicking +1.3, 4th downs +1.6, penalty first downs −2.3. | −11.18th | +11.192nd |
Season so far
New Mexico State3–5 · 111th-hardest schedule
L
at Florida State17–34covered +31
at Florida State17–34covered +31Wvs Mercyhurst51–14covered −29
Lat Hawai'i19–29missed +7.5
at Hawai'i19–29missed +7.5L
vs New Mexico18–42missed +11.5
vs New Mexico18–42missed +11.5W
vs Western Kentucky34–13covered −2
vs Western Kentucky34–13covered −2L
at Florida International3–22missed +7
at Florida International3–22missed +7W
at Sam Houston30–24covered −3
at Sam Houston30–24covered −3L
vs Jacksonville State0–24missed +3
vs Jacksonville State0–24missed +3Hawai'i2–6 · 128th-hardest schedule
L
at Stanford27–37missed +4.5
at Stanford27–37missed +4.5L
vs UNLV6–21missed +2.5
vs UNLV6–21missed +2.5Wvs New Mexico State29–19covered −7.5
vs New Mexico State29–19covered −7.5L
at Wyoming10–27missed −2
at Wyoming10–27missed −2L
vs San José State16–20missed −3
vs San José State16–20missed −3L
at Arizona State12–30covered +21
at Arizona State12–30covered +21Lvs New Mexico10–21covered +14.5
vs New Mexico10–21covered +14.5W
at Northern Illinois56–21covered −3
at Northern Illinois56–21covered −3Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 12, 9:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is