Week 7 report · Sat, Oct 17 · 2026 Week 7
New Mexico
7–1 · Ours #32 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
21–10FinalWe had UNM 34 – HAW 15
Hawai'i
2–6 · Ours #125 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.UNM 88%UNM won
UNM 88%UNM wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at UNM −14.5.UNM −14.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −19.3 · HAW covered by 3.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 49.0.46.5final 31 · under by 15.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.UNM −14.5Lmatched the close
UNM −14.5Lmatched the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Toa Fa'avae5/10 · 59 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.0139th pct
- Comp %
- 50.0
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
Micah Alejado23/40 · 250 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.0930th pct
- Comp %
- 57.5
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| New Mexicooffense | Played like UNM +12.2Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseHawai'i | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23rd | 33.9%▼10.0 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 33.9%▲10.4 | 77th |
| 58th | +0.11▲0.08 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.11 | 42nd |
| 79th | +0.38▲0.45 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.38▼0.20 | 21st |
| 48th | +0.03▼0.05 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.03▲0.02 | 52nd |
| 15th | 2▼1.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲1.4 | 85th |
| Hawai'ioffense | defenseNew Mexico | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32nd | 36.9%▼5.2 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 36.9%▼5.9 | 68th |
| 13th | −0.22▼0.30 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.22▼0.06 | 87th |
| 34th | −0.09▼0.19 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.09▼0.20 | 66th |
| 3rd | −0.48▼0.54 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.48▲0.21 | 97th |
| 41st | 1▼0.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▼1.3 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| New MexicoUNM | Hawai'iHAW | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2847th | Own 2955th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | 0.0 pts39th | −2.4 pts6th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 5951st | 6569th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +9.577th | −9.524th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 251st | 899th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +1.5 pts98th | 0.0 pts50th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. HAW +4.0: turnovers +2.6, field position +0.4, kicking −1.7, 4th downs −2.0, penalty first downs +4.6. | −4.031st | +4.069th |
Season so far
New Mexico7–1 · 127th-hardest schedule
W
vs Central Michigan38–7covered −11QB change mid-game
vs Central Michigan38–7covered −11QB change mid-gameWvs Mercyhurst70–7covered −42.5
L
at Oklahoma6–14covered +21
at Oklahoma6–14covered +21W
at New Mexico State42–18covered −11.5
at New Mexico State42–18covered −11.5W
vs UTEP61–7covered −23.5
vs UTEP61–7covered −23.5Wat Hawai'i21–10missed −14.5
at Hawai'i21–10missed −14.5W
vs North Dakota State21–16covered −4.5
vs North Dakota State21–16covered −4.5W
at San José State21–16missed −14.5
at San José State21–16missed −14.5Hawai'i2–6 · 128th-hardest schedule
L
at Stanford27–37missed +4.5
at Stanford27–37missed +4.5L
vs UNLV6–21missed +2.5
vs UNLV6–21missed +2.5Wvs New Mexico State29–19covered −7.5
vs New Mexico State29–19covered −7.5L
at Wyoming10–27missed −2
at Wyoming10–27missed −2Lvs San José State16–20missed −3
vs San José State16–20missed −3L
at Arizona State12–30covered +21
at Arizona State12–30covered +21Lvs New Mexico10–21covered +14.5
vs New Mexico10–21covered +14.5W
at Northern Illinois56–21covered −3
at Northern Illinois56–21covered −3Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 17, 9:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is