Week 6 report · Sat, Oct 10 · 2026 Week 6
Hawai'i
2–6 · Ours #123 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
12–30FinalWe had HAW 18 – ASU 35
Arizona State
4–3 · Ours #74 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.ASU 85%ASU won
ASU 85%ASU wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at ASU −22.5.ASU −21oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −17.5 · HAW covered by 3
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 53.1.51final 42 · under by 9
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.HAW +21.5Wbeat the close by 0.5
HAW +21.5Wbeat the close by 0.5Quarterbacksthis game
Micah Alejado25/49 · 252 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.2319th pct
- Comp %
- 51.0
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
Cutter Boley21/31 · 189 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.0241st pct
- Comp %
- 67.7
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Hawai'ioffense | Played like ASU +16.8Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseArizona State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 37th | 38.4%▼3.5 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 38.4%▲3.1 | 63rd |
| 25th | −0.11▼0.17 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.11▲0.16 | 75th |
| 22nd | −0.23▼0.36 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.23▲0.31 | 78th |
| 77th | +0.23▲0.28 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.23▼0.24 | 23rd |
| 41st | 1▼0.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.6 | 59th |
| Arizona Stateoffense | defenseHawai'i | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 87th | 54.1%▲18.7 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 54.1%▼12.7 | 13th |
| 65th | +0.16▲0.25 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.16▼0.06 | 35th |
| 46th | +0.02▲0.04 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.02▲0.21 | 54th |
| 86th | +0.32▲0.46 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.32▼0.31 | 14th |
| 79th | 0▲1.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.9 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Hawai'iHAW | Arizona StateASU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2635th | Own 2418th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −0.2 pts27th | −1.1 pts21st |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 7387th | 6158th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −18.211th | +18.290th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 486th | 127th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | 0.0 pts42nd | 0.0 pts50th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. HAW +1.1: turnovers −2.6, field position +0.8, kicking +0.6, penalty first downs +2.3. | +1.155th | −1.145th |
Season so far
Hawai'i2–6 · 128th-hardest schedule
L
at Stanford27–37missed +4.5
at Stanford27–37missed +4.5L
vs UNLV6–21missed +2.5
vs UNLV6–21missed +2.5W
vs New Mexico State29–19covered −7.5
vs New Mexico State29–19covered −7.5L
at Wyoming10–27missed −2
at Wyoming10–27missed −2L
vs San José State16–20missed −3
vs San José State16–20missed −3Lat Arizona State12–30covered +21
at Arizona State12–30covered +21L
vs New Mexico10–21covered +14.5
vs New Mexico10–21covered +14.5W
at Northern Illinois56–21covered −3
at Northern Illinois56–21covered −3Arizona State4–3 · 32nd-hardest schedule
Wvs Morgan State70–7covered −43.5
L
at Texas A&M20–48missed +14.5
at Texas A&M20–48missed +14.5W
at Kansas24–17covered −5.5
at Kansas24–17covered −5.5L
vs Baylor19–55missed −3.5
vs Baylor19–55missed −3.5Wvs Hawai'i30–12missed −21
vs Hawai'i30–12missed −21L
at Texas Tech25–53missed +16.5QB change mid-game
at Texas Tech25–53missed +16.5QB change mid-gameW
vs Kansas State28–17covered +1
vs Kansas State28–17covered +1Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 10, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is