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Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTupdated
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Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Nevada

3–4 FBS · Mountain West · this season
Rating
−5.9
Rank
98
Résumé
107
Projected wins
5.2▲ 0.3 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5Western KentuckyWKUNEV +3.3NEV +2.5W 49–1477WKU · L
Sat, Sep 129/12Montana StateMontana StateNEV −29.7NEV +4.5L 7–2038
Sat, Sep 199/19at Middle TennesseeMTSUNEV PKNEV −6.0L 20–2737MTSU · W
Sat, Sep 269/26Air ForceAFNEV −1.9NEV +4.5L 33–3647NEV · W
Sat, Oct 1010/10at UTEPUTEPNEV −8.5NEV −9.5W 30–1367UTEP · L
Sat, Oct 1710/17at North Dakota StateNDSUNEV +12.3NEV +15.5L 17–3146NEV · W
Sat, Oct 2410/24San José StateSJSUNEV −7.6NEV −5.5W 28–1360NEV · W
Sat, Oct 3110/31at UCLAUCLANEV +24.2NEV +23.0UCLA −22.5Pass
Fri, Nov 611/6New MexicoUNMNEV +10.1—wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14at Northern IllinoisNIUNEV −15.4—wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21Hawai'iHAWNEV −4.3—wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28at UNLVUNLVNEV +2.0—wk 13

Model on NEV games: 4–2 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 1–1 · as the dog 3–1 · home 3–1, away 1–1 · avg gap to the market +3.3 · closer than the market 2 of 6

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
5.23–4 banked, 5 to play · preseason 4.9
Bowl (6+)38%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 5 games left add 2.2 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game10%
Win conference3%
Make the CFP0%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

7 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play−0.01114th
Success rate40.7%99th
Pass EPA−0.15131st
Rush EPA+0.1145th
Explosive rate11.9%86th
Quality-drive rate43.4%113th
Points per quality drive4.165th
Defense
EPA allowed−0.0334th
Success allowed37.1%27th
Pass EPA allowed−0.0438th
Rush EPA allowed−0.0246th
Explosive allowed8.6%10th
Havoc rate14.6%63rd

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+1.631st
Turnover margin−8130th · exp. −7.5
Field position margin−3.9 yd120th
Hidden points / game−2.7gave up
Luck, wins−0.93.9 earned
One-score record0–2flipped 5–2
Rush rate over expected+3.4%34th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−5.998th
Schedule played−9.0136th
Schedule remaining−2.673rd
Full schedule−6.1114th
Pregame expected wins3.0of 7

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 3Wk 6Wk 9
Ours 98th · −5.9Week 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageTCUNorth CarolinaUNLVMemphisStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABKansasGeorgia StatePurdueFresno StateMiamiMichigan StateToledoOklahomaUTEPColorado StateWyomingTroySam HoustonTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonOld DominionLouisiana TechSouthern MissArkansasKentuckyIowa StateAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateOregonBoise StateCincinnatiBoston CollegeNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateIowaNorthern IllinoisMichiganWestern MichiganFloridaFlorida AtlanticLouisianaAuburnBaylorNorthwesternBYUMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateSouth CarolinaKent StateWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLACharlotteOhio StateBall StatePittsburghMiami (OH)NebraskaOhioWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaSyracuseUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyArmyWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUNEVgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Nevadaoff −0.01 114thdef −0.03 allowed · 34th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.