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Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTupdated
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Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

New Mexico State

3–5 FBS · Conference USA · this season
Rating
−13.0
Rank
125
Résumé
116
Projected wins
4.6▲ 0.8 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Aug 298/29at Florida StateFSUNMSU +26.7NMSU +31.0L 17–3436NMSU · W
Sat, Sep 59/5MercyhurstMercyhurstNMSU −26.9NMSU −29.0W 51–1485
Sat, Sep 129/12at Hawai'iHAWNMSU +9.6NMSU +10.0L 19–2943HAW · Push
Sat, Sep 269/26New MexicoUNMNMSU +11.6NMSU +13.5L 18–4223NMSU · L
Thu, Oct 110/1Western KentuckyWKUNMSU +2.1NMSU −2.5W 34–1360WKU · L
Wed, Oct 710/7at Florida InternationalFIUNMSU +7.3NMSU +5.5L 3–2247FIU · W
Wed, Oct 2110/21at Sam HoustonSHSUNMSU −2.6NMSU −3.0W 30–2456SHSU · L
Wed, Oct 2810/28Jacksonville StateJXSTNMSU +5.6NMSU +3.0L 0–2424JXST · W
Sat, Nov 711/7LibertyLIBNMSU +18.1—wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14at Missouri StateMOSTNMSU PK—wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21DelawareDELNMSU +2.4—wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28at Middle TennesseeMTSUNMSU +0.9—wk 13

Model on NMSU games: 3–3–1 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 2–0 · as the dog 1–3 · home 1–2, away 2–1 · avg gap to the market +1.9 · closer than the market 5 of 7

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
4.63–5 banked, 4 to play · preseason 3.8
Bowl (6+)2%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 4 games left add 1.6 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game1%
Win conference<1%
Make the CFP0%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

8 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play−0.07127th
Success rate39.3%116th
Pass EPA−0.19132nd
Rush EPA+0.0678th
Explosive rate12.2%79th
Quality-drive rate44.0%108th
Points per quality drive2.9130th
Defense
EPA allowed−0.0047th
Success allowed41.0%64th
Pass EPA allowed−0.0154th
Rush EPA allowed−0.0053rd
Explosive allowed12.2%82nd
Havoc rate15.2%44th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game−3.2127th
Turnover margin−8130th · exp. −4.5
Field position margin−4.1 yd121st
Hidden points / game−5.2gave up
Luck, wins+0.32.7 earned
One-score record1–0flipped 2–6
Rush rate over expected−1.1%61st
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−13.0125th
Schedule played−4.7105th
Schedule remaining−6.3103rd
Full schedule−5.3106th
Pregame expected wins2.9of 8

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 3Wk 6Wk 9
Ours 125th · −13.0Week 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageTCUNorth CarolinaUNLVMemphisStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABKansasGeorgia StatePurdueFresno StateMiamiMichigan StateToledoOklahomaUTEPColorado StateWyomingTroySam HoustonTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonOld DominionLouisiana TechSouthern MissArkansasKentuckyIowa StateAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateOregonBoise StateCincinnatiBoston CollegeNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateIowaNorthern IllinoisMichiganWestern MichiganFloridaFlorida AtlanticLouisianaAuburnBaylorNorthwesternBYUMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateSouth CarolinaKent StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLACharlotteOhio StateBall StatePittsburghMiami (OH)NebraskaOhioWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaSyracuseUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyArmyWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUNMSUgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
New Mexico Stateoff −0.07 127thdef −0.00 allowed · 47th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.