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Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTupdated
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Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Tulane

4–4 FBS · American Athletic · this season
Rating
−5.5
Rank
95
Résumé
83
Projected wins
5.5▼ 1.9 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5at DukeDUKETULN +3.1TULN +9.5L 3–1741TULN · L
Sat, Sep 129/12South AlabamaUSATULN −12.9TULN −10.5W 28–2458TULN · L
Sat, Sep 199/19at Kansas StateKSUTULN +17.3TULN +19.5L 20–3133TULN · W
Sat, Sep 269/26Southern MissUSMTULN −16.3TULN −18.5W 24–2143USM · W
Sat, Oct 1010/10at ArmyARMYTULN +6.5TULN +3.5L 17–2040ARMY · L
Fri, Oct 1610/16MemphisMEMTULN +6.3TULN +7.0W 31–1758TULN · W
Sat, Oct 2410/24UTSAUTSATULN +3.6TULN +1.5L 19–4235UTSA · W
Fri, Oct 3010/30at CharlotteCLTTULN −10.6TULN −10.0W 38–3154TULN · L
Sat, Nov 711/7TulsaTLSATULN +3.6—wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14at RiceRICETULN +1.4—wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21North TexasUNTTULN +10.0—wk 12
Fri, Nov 2711/27at South FloridaUSFTULN +7.0—wk 13

Model on TULN games: 4–4 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 1–3 · as the dog 3–1 · home 1–2, away 3–2 · avg gap to the market +2.5 · closer than the market 4 of 8

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
5.54–4 banked, 4 to play · preseason 7.4
Bowl (6+)47%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 4 games left add 1.5 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game1%
Win conference<1%
Make the CFP0%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

8 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.0492nd
Success rate36.8%130th
Pass EPA+0.00100th
Rush EPA+0.0962nd
Explosive rate11.8%91st
Quality-drive rate42.4%119th
Points per quality drive3.4115th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.0888th
Success allowed43.5%97th
Pass EPA allowed+0.0366th
Rush EPA allowed+0.12110th
Explosive allowed13.4%101st
Havoc rate12.5%101st

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+1.240th
Turnover margin+256th · exp. +1.0
Field position margin−1.6 yd98th
Hidden points / game+1.8banked
Luck, wins+0.13.9 earned
One-score record3–1flipped 2–6
Rush rate over expected−0.5%58th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−5.595th
Schedule played−2.589th
Schedule remaining−3.175th
Full schedule−2.780th
Pregame expected wins3.5of 8

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 3Wk 6Wk 9
Ours 95th · −5.5Week 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageTCUNorth CarolinaUNLVMemphisStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABKansasGeorgia StatePurdueFresno StateMiamiMichigan StateToledoOklahomaUTEPColorado StateWyomingTroySam HoustonTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonOld DominionLouisiana TechSouthern MissArkansasKentuckyIowa StateAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateOregonBoise StateCincinnatiBoston CollegeNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulsaOklahoma StateIowaNorthern IllinoisMichiganWestern MichiganFloridaFlorida AtlanticLouisianaAuburnBaylorNorthwesternBYUMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateSouth CarolinaKent StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLACharlotteOhio StateBall StatePittsburghMiami (OH)NebraskaOhioWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaSyracuseUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyArmyWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUTULNgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Tulaneoff +0.04 92nddef +0.08 allowed · 88th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.