Week 7 report · Fri, Oct 16 · 2026 Week 7
Memphis
6–2 · Ours #47 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
17–31FinalWe had MEM 29 – TULN 23
Tulane
4–4 · Ours #83 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.MEM 66%TULN won
MEM 66%TULN wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at MEM −7.MEM −6.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −6.3 · TULN covered by 20.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 51.6.56final 48 · under by 8
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.TULN +7Wbeat the close by 0.5
TULN +7Wbeat the close by 0.5Quarterbacksthis game
Marcus Stokes20/36 · 306 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.3810th pct
- Comp %
- 55.6
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 6
Trace Johnson11/21 · 165 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.0241st pct
- Comp %
- 52.4
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Memphisoffense | Played like TULN +5.2Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseTulane | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 53rd | 42.5%▼6.0 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 42.5%▲1.5 | 47th |
| 8th | −0.29▼0.50 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.29▲0.44 | 92nd |
| 4th | −0.60▼0.93 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.60▲0.72 | 96th |
| 56th | +0.08▲0.01 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.08▲0.04 | 44th |
| 1st | 4▼3.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 4▲3.7 | 99th |
| Tulaneoffense | defenseMemphis | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11th | 28.8%▼8.4 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 28.8%▲10.2 | 89th |
| 25th | −0.11▼0.18 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.11▲0.17 | 75th |
| 45th | +0.01 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.01▼0.19 | 55th |
| 19th | −0.19▼0.29 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.19▲0.45 | 81st |
| 41st | 1▼0.1 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▼0.3 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| MemphisMEM | TulaneTULN | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2846th | Own 3273rd |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −0.5 pts27th | +0.8 pts71st |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 8096th | 5951st |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +5.066th | −5.034th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 251st | 372nd |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.9 pts9th | +0.3 pts68th |
| Return touchdownsReturn TDsDefensive and special-teams touchdowns. | 043rd | 192nd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. TULN +19.4: turnovers +10.4, field position +1.5, kicking +0.9, 4th downs +1.6, penalty first downs +0.8, return touchdowns +4.2. | −19.41st | +19.499th |
Season so far
Memphis6–2 · 107th-hardest schedule
W
at UNLV27–21covered +5
at UNLV27–21covered +5W
vs Arkansas State42–24covered −11
vs Arkansas State42–24covered −11L
at Boise State20–38missed +9
at Boise State20–38missed +9Wvs UT Martin45–21missed −33.5
W
at Charlotte59–8covered −20.5
at Charlotte59–8covered −20.5W
vs UAB38–13covered −14.5
vs UAB38–13covered −14.5Lat Tulane17–31missed −6.5
at Tulane17–31missed −6.5W
vs East Carolina41–34missed −10.5
vs East Carolina41–34missed −10.5Tulane4–4 · 88th-hardest schedule
L
at Duke3–17missed +9QB change mid-game
at Duke3–17missed +9QB change mid-gameW
vs South Alabama28–24missed −9.5
vs South Alabama28–24missed −9.5L
at Kansas State20–31covered +20.5
at Kansas State20–31covered +20.5W
vs Southern Miss24–21missed −18.5
vs Southern Miss24–21missed −18.5L
at Army17–20covered +4
at Army17–20covered +4Wvs Memphis31–17covered +6.5
vs Memphis31–17covered +6.5L
vs UTSA19–42missed +3
vs UTSA19–42missed +3Wat Charlotte38–31missed −8.5
at Charlotte38–31missed −8.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 16, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is