Week 6 report · Sat, Oct 10 · 2026 Week 6
Tulane
4–4 · Ours #81 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
17–20FinalWe had TULN 22 – ARMY 28
Army
5–2 · Ours #84 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.ARMY 66%ARMY won
ARMY 66%ARMY wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at ARMY −3.5.ARMY −4oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −6.5 · TULN covered by 1
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 49.9.49final 37 · under by 12
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.ARMY −3.5Lbeat the close by 0.5
ARMY −3.5Lbeat the close by 0.5Quarterbacksthis game
Kadin Semonza14/26 · 158 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.0534th pct
- Comp %
- 53.8
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Cale Hellums3/6 · 19 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.14
- Comp %
- 50.0
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Tulaneoffense | Played like ARMY +11.5Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseArmy | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16th | 31.4%▼5.4 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 31.4%▲19.1 | 83rd |
| 41st | 0.00▼0.05 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | 0.00▲0.40 | 59th |
| 38th | −0.05▼0.07 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.05▲0.48 | 62nd |
| 50th | +0.05▼0.02 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.05▲0.31 | 50th |
| 41st | 1▼0.1 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.6 | 59th |
| Armyoffense | defenseTulane | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 78th | 50.0%▲1.2 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 50.0%▼7.1 | 22nd |
| 61st | +0.13▼0.14 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.13▼0.04 | 39th |
| 30th | −0.14▼0.36 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.14▲0.19 | 70th |
| 66th | +0.15▼0.08 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.15▼0.04 | 34th |
| 79th | 0▲0.4 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.9 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| TulaneTULN | ArmyARMY | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3483rd | Own 2419th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +0.1 pts51st | −0.9 pts23rd |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 5133rd | 6466th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −9.524th | +9.577th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 08th | 251st |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.4 pts30th | −0.3 pts33rd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. TULN 0.0: turnovers −2.6, field position +3.5, kicking +0.8, 4th downs −0.1, penalty first downs −1.5. | 0.051st | 0.049th |
Season so far
Tulane4–4 · 88th-hardest schedule
L
at Duke3–17missed +9QB change mid-game
at Duke3–17missed +9QB change mid-gameW
vs South Alabama28–24missed −9.5
vs South Alabama28–24missed −9.5L
at Kansas State20–31covered +20.5
at Kansas State20–31covered +20.5W
vs Southern Miss24–21missed −18.5
vs Southern Miss24–21missed −18.5Lat Army17–20covered +4
at Army17–20covered +4W
vs Memphis31–17covered +6.5
vs Memphis31–17covered +6.5L
vs UTSA19–42missed +3
vs UTSA19–42missed +3W
at Charlotte38–31missed −8.5
at Charlotte38–31missed −8.5Army5–2 · 97th-hardest schedule
Wvs Bryant59–3covered −36.5
L
vs South Florida24–28missed −3.5
vs South Florida24–28missed −3.5W
at Temple21–17covered −3.5
at Temple21–17covered −3.5L
at Louisiana Tech29–31missed +1
at Louisiana Tech29–31missed +1Wvs Tulane20–17missed −4
vs Tulane20–17missed −4W
vs Florida Atlantic56–24covered −2.5
vs Florida Atlantic56–24covered −2.5W
at Tulsa38–35covered −1
at Tulsa38–35covered −1Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 10, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is