Board · Rankings · CollegeNext: vs OKST · Sat, Nov 7 · time TBD →
Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Kansas State
4–4 FBS · Big 12 · this season
Rating
+3.4
Rank
52
Résumé
100
Projected wins
6.5▲ 0.1 vs preseason
CFP odds
<1%
Schedule
our line · the market · graded at the early week lineDateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Model on KSU games: 2–5 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 0–3 · as the dog 2–2 · home 0–0, away 2–5 · avg gap to the market +4.7 · closer than the market 2 of 7
Outlook
from 10,000 season simulationsProjected wins
6.54–4 banked, 4 to play · preseason 6.4
Bowl (6+)49%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%
The 4 games left add 2.5 expected wins.
Playoff picture
Reach title game<1%
Win conference<1%
Make the CFP<1%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%
Full bracket on the playoffs page.
Offense and defense
8 games · rank of 138 FBSrank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.1255th
Success rate45.6%41st
Pass EPA+0.1355th
Rush EPA+0.1053rd
Explosive rate11.2%102nd
Quality-drive rate55.4%40th
Points per quality drive4.356th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.0676th
Success allowed37.6%30th
Pass EPA allowed+0.1295th
Rush EPA allowed+0.0157th
Explosive allowed14.3%119th
Havoc rate16.4%28th
Special teams, luck and schedule
through the latest boardrank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+1.535th
Turnover margin072nd · exp. +1.5
Field position margin+1.8 yd52nd
Hidden points / game−0.0gave up
Luck, wins−0.54.5 earned
One-score record0–2flipped 6–2
Rush rate over expected−1.4%68th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+3.452nd
Schedule played+0.167th
Schedule remaining+6.539th
Full schedule+2.459th
Pregame expected wins5.1of 8
Ranking by week
ours vs the AP pollOurs 52nd · +3.4Week 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
Kansas Stateoff +0.12 55thdef +0.06 allowed · 76th
Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.
Kansas Stateoff +0.12 55thdef +0.06 allowed · 76th
Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.


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