Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Kansas State

4–4 FBS · Big 12 · this season
Rating
+3.4
Rank
52
Résumé
100
Projected wins
6.5▲ 0.1 vs preseason
CFP odds
<1%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5NichollsNichollsKSU −30.4KSU −41.5W 71–396
Sat, Sep 129/12Washington StateWSUKSU −10.6KSU −17.5W 34–774WSU · L
Sat, Sep 199/19TulaneTULNKSU −17.3KSU −19.5W 31–2067TULN · W
Sat, Sep 269/26at CincinnatiCINKSU −8.1KSU −7.0L 26–3144KSU · L
Sat, Oct 1010/10HoustonHOUKSU −1.4KSU −2.5L 16–3539HOU · W
Sat, Oct 1710/17KansasKUKSU +0.9KSU −6.0W 35–2466KU · L
Sat, Oct 2410/24at Arizona StateASUKSU −6.2KSU −3.5L 17–2836KSU · L
Sat, Oct 3110/31at ColoradoCOLOKSU −7.4KSU −2.5L 24–2741KSU · L
Sat, Nov 1411/14at TCUTCUKSU +3.9—wk 11
Sat, Nov 2811/28at Iowa StateISUKSU −2.3—wk 13

Model on KSU games: 2–5 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 0–3 · as the dog 2–2 · home 0–0, away 2–5 · avg gap to the market +4.7 · closer than the market 2 of 7

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
6.54–4 banked, 4 to play · preseason 6.4
Bowl (6+)49%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 4 games left add 2.5 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game<1%
Win conference<1%
Make the CFP<1%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

8 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.1255th
Success rate45.6%41st
Pass EPA+0.1355th
Rush EPA+0.1053rd
Explosive rate11.2%102nd
Quality-drive rate55.4%40th
Points per quality drive4.356th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.0676th
Success allowed37.6%30th
Pass EPA allowed+0.1295th
Rush EPA allowed+0.0157th
Explosive allowed14.3%119th
Havoc rate16.4%28th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+1.535th
Turnover margin072nd · exp. +1.5
Field position margin+1.8 yd52nd
Hidden points / game−0.0gave up
Luck, wins−0.54.5 earned
One-score record0–2flipped 6–2
Rush rate over expected−1.4%68th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+3.452nd
Schedule played+0.167th
Schedule remaining+6.539th
Full schedule+2.459th
Pregame expected wins5.1of 8

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 3Wk 6Wk 9
Ours 52nd · +3.4Week 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageTCUNorth CarolinaUNLVMemphisStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABKansasGeorgia StatePurdueFresno StateMiamiMichigan StateToledoOklahomaUTEPColorado StateWyomingTroySam HoustonTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonOld DominionLouisiana TechSouthern MissArkansasKentuckyIowa StateAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateOregonBoise StateCincinnatiBoston CollegeNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateIowaNorthern IllinoisMichiganWestern MichiganFloridaFlorida AtlanticLouisianaAuburnBaylorNorthwesternBYUMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateSouth CarolinaKent StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLACharlotteOhio StateBall StatePittsburghMiami (OH)NebraskaOhioWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaSyracuseUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyArmyWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUKSUgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Kansas Stateoff +0.12 55thdef +0.06 allowed · 76th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.