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Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTupdated
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Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Charlotte

1–7 FBS · American Athletic · this season
Rating
−18.7
Rank
132
Résumé
132
Projected wins
1.6▼ 0.5 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5The CitadelThe CitadelCLT −22.9CLT −20.5L 41–4353
Sat, Sep 129/12at Ole MissMISSCLT +44.0CLT +47.5L 9–4134CLT · W
Sat, Sep 199/19at App StateAPPCLT +16.4CLT +19.0L 21–2639CLT · W
Sat, Sep 269/26LouisianaULCLT +7.0CLT +13.5L 7–3431CLT · L
Sat, Oct 310/3MemphisMEMCLT +18.4CLT +20.0L 8–5924CLT · L
Sat, Oct 1010/10at North TexasUNTCLT +31.0CLT +27.5L 10–5023UNT · W
Sat, Oct 1710/17at TempleTEMCLT +21.6CLT +21.5W 38–3144TEM · L
Fri, Oct 3010/30TulaneTULNCLT +10.6CLT +10.0L 31–3846TULN · L
Sat, Nov 711/7at UABUABCLT +13.2—wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14East CarolinaECUCLT +15.2—wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21at TulsaTLSACLT +20.7—wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28NavyNAVYCLT +16.7—wk 13

Model on CLT games: 3–4 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 1–2 · as the dog 2–2 · home 1–3, away 2–1 · avg gap to the market +2.3 · closer than the market 3 of 7

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
1.61–7 banked, 4 to play · preseason 2.1
Bowl (6+)0%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 4 games left add 0.6 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game0%
Win conference0%
Make the CFP0%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

8 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.0585th
Success rate38.4%121st
Pass EPA+0.0389th
Rush EPA+0.0865th
Explosive rate14.0%35th
Quality-drive rate41.7%123rd
Points per quality drive3.4110th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.23134th
Success allowed49.9%135th
Pass EPA allowed+0.33135th
Rush EPA allowed+0.15116th
Explosive allowed13.7%111th
Havoc rate10.6%128th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game−1.1106th
Turnover margin−13137th · exp. −10.5
Field position margin−5.2 yd130th
Hidden points / game−5.2gave up
Luck, wins−0.61.6 earned
One-score record1–3flipped 3–5
Rush rate over expected−1.1%60th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−18.7132nd
Schedule played+0.664th
Schedule remaining−5.695th
Full schedule−1.675th
Pregame expected wins1.8of 8

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 3Wk 6Wk 9
Ours 132nd · −18.7Week 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageTCUNorth CarolinaUNLVMemphisStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABKansasGeorgia StatePurdueFresno StateMiamiMichigan StateToledoOklahomaUTEPColorado StateWyomingTroySam HoustonTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonOld DominionLouisiana TechSouthern MissArkansasKentuckyIowa StateAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateOregonBoise StateCincinnatiBoston CollegeNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateIowaNorthern IllinoisMichiganWestern MichiganFloridaFlorida AtlanticLouisianaAuburnBaylorNorthwesternBYUMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateSouth CarolinaKent StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLAOhio StateBall StatePittsburghMiami (OH)NebraskaOhioWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaSyracuseUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyArmyWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUCLTgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Charlotteoff +0.05 85thdef +0.23 allowed · 134th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.