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Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTupdated
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Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Southern Miss

2–5 FBS · Sun Belt · this season
Rating
−11.0
Rank
120
Résumé
119
Projected wins
4.2▼ 0.1 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5Alcorn StateAlcorn StateUSM −27.6USM −19.5W 49–389
Sat, Sep 129/12at AuburnAUBUSM +20.3USM +30.0L 8–4311USM · L
Sat, Sep 199/19UConnCONNUSM −2.5USM +3.5L 20–4823USM · L
Sat, Sep 269/26at TulaneTULNUSM +16.3USM +18.5L 21–2458USM · W
Tue, Oct 610/6at TroyTROYUSM +0.7USM +10.5L 34–5552USM · L
Sat, Oct 1710/17Arkansas StateARSTUSM +1.6USM +7.0L 13–2353USM · L
Sat, Oct 2410/24LouisianaULUSM +7.8USM +10.5W 35–3152USM · W
Sat, Oct 3110/31at UL MonroeULMUSM −7.8USM −3.5USM −3.5Pass
Thu, Nov 511/5James MadisonJMUUSM +13.6—wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14at Louisiana TechLTUSM +11.0—wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21South AlabamaUSAUSM PK—wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28at Old DominionODUUSM −1.7—wk 13

Model on USM games: 2–4 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 0–0 · as the dog 2–4 · home 1–2, away 1–2 · avg gap to the market +5.9 · closer than the market 2 of 6

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
4.22–5 banked, 5 to play · preseason 4.3
Bowl (6+)1%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 5 games left add 2.2 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game2%
Win conference1%
Make the CFP0%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

7 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.0680th
Success rate41.8%81st
Pass EPA−0.02108th
Rush EPA+0.1723rd
Explosive rate13.3%55th
Quality-drive rate50.0%74th
Points per quality drive3.2124th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.0990th
Success allowed43.1%93rd
Pass EPA allowed+0.1191st
Rush EPA allowed+0.0788th
Explosive allowed13.1%96th
Havoc rate13.5%78th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game−3.3129th
Turnover margin−7124th · exp. −3.5
Field position margin−2.2 yd108th
Hidden points / game−6.7gave up
Luck, wins−0.42.4 earned
One-score record1–1flipped 2–5
Rush rate over expected−3.6%94th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−11.0120th
Schedule played−1.979th
Schedule remaining−7.7114th
Full schedule−4.594th
Pregame expected wins2.9of 7

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 3Wk 6Wk 9
Ours 120th · −11.0Week 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageTCUNorth CarolinaUNLVMemphisStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABKansasGeorgia StatePurdueFresno StateMiamiMichigan StateToledoOklahomaUTEPColorado StateWyomingTroySam HoustonTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonOld DominionLouisiana TechArkansasKentuckyIowa StateAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateOregonBoise StateCincinnatiBoston CollegeNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateIowaNorthern IllinoisMichiganWestern MichiganFloridaFlorida AtlanticLouisianaAuburnBaylorNorthwesternBYUMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateSouth CarolinaKent StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLACharlotteOhio StateBall StatePittsburghMiami (OH)NebraskaOhioWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaSyracuseUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyArmyWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUUSMgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Southern Missoff +0.06 80thdef +0.09 allowed · 90th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.