Week 1 report · Sat, Sep 5 · 2026 Week 1
Tulane
4–4 · Ours #43 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
3–17FinalWe had TULN 27 – DUKE 31
Duke
6–2 · Ours #45 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.DUKE 57%DUKE won
DUKE 57%DUKE wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at DUKE −9.5.DUKE −9oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −3.1 · DUKE covered by 5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 58.0.51.5final 20 · under by 31.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.TULN +9.5Lbeat the close by 0.5
TULN +9.5Lbeat the close by 0.5Quarterbacksthis game
Kadin Semonza11/21 · 140 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.3910th pct
- Comp %
- 52.4
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
Replaced Zeon Chriss-Gremillion in Q3
Walker Eget12/26 · 128 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.2815th pct
- Comp %
- 46.2
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Tulaneoffense | Played like DUKE +7.8Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseDuke | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9th | 27.8%▼9.5 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 27.8%▲14.8 | 91st |
| 13th | −0.22▼0.30 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.22▲0.24 | 87th |
| 21st | −0.26▼0.31 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.26▲0.30 | 79th |
| 22nd | −0.16▼0.25 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.16▲0.17 | 78th |
| 41st | 1▼0.1 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.2 | 59th |
| Dukeoffense | defenseTulane | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13th | 29.7%▼12.5 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 29.7%▲16.1 | 87th |
| 31st | −0.07▼0.21 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.07▲0.19 | 69th |
| 15th | −0.33▼0.55 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.33▲0.41 | 85th |
| 55th | +0.08▲0.03 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.08▲0.04 | 45th |
| 79th | 0▲0.8 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.9 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| TulaneTULN | DukeDUKE | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2525th | Own 3375th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −1.3 pts18th | −2.3 pts7th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 5438th | 7489th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −4.635th | +4.665th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 251st | 251st |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.5 pts21st | −0.8 pts11th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. DUKE +1.6: field position +2.7, kicking −0.7, 4th downs −0.4. | −1.641st | +1.659th |
Season so far
Tulane4–4 · 88th-hardest schedule
Lat Duke3–17missed +9QB change mid-game
at Duke3–17missed +9QB change mid-gameW
vs South Alabama28–24missed −9.5
vs South Alabama28–24missed −9.5L
at Kansas State20–31covered +20.5
at Kansas State20–31covered +20.5W
vs Southern Miss24–21missed −18.5
vs Southern Miss24–21missed −18.5L
at Army17–20covered +4
at Army17–20covered +4W
vs Memphis31–17covered +6.5
vs Memphis31–17covered +6.5L
vs UTSA19–42missed +3
vs UTSA19–42missed +3W
at Charlotte38–31missed −8.5
at Charlotte38–31missed −8.5Duke6–2 · 86th-hardest schedule
Wvs Tulane17–3covered −9
vs Tulane17–3covered −9W
at Illinois31–27covered +6.5
at Illinois31–27covered +6.5W
vs Stanford35–7covered −10
vs Stanford35–7covered −10Wvs William & Mary62–7covered −43.5
L
at Georgia Tech25–28missed −4.5
at Georgia Tech25–28missed −4.5L
vs North Carolina20–24missed −3
vs North Carolina20–24missed −3W
at Virginia19–16covered +2.5
at Virginia19–16covered +2.5W
vs Boston College47–2covered −7
vs Boston College47–2covered −7Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 5, 3:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is