Week 8 report · Sat, Oct 24 · 2026 Week 8
UTSA
7–1 · Ours #77 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
42–19FinalWe had UTSA 28 – TULN 25
Tulane
4–4 · Ours #74 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.UTSA 59%UTSA won
UTSA 59%UTSA wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at UTSA −2.5.UTSA −3oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −3.6 · UTSA covered by 20
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 53.4.51.5final 61 · over by 9.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.UTSA −1.5Wbeat the close by 1.5
UTSA −1.5Wbeat the close by 1.5Quarterbacksthis game
Owen McCown16/21 · 173 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.2868th pct
- Comp %
- 76.2
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Trace Johnson24/44 · 265 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.0535th pct
- Comp %
- 54.5
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| UTSAoffense | Played like UTSA +13.4Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseTulane | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 84th | 52.6%▲9.6 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 52.6%▼10.0 | 16th |
| 74th | +0.23▲0.13 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.23▼0.16 | 26th |
| 36th | −0.07▼0.18 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.07▲0.11 | 64th |
| 92nd | +0.41▲0.32 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.41▼0.33 | 8th |
| 15th | 2▼1.7 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲1.4 | 85th |
| Tulaneoffense | defenseUTSA | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19th | 32.7%▼3.9 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 32.7%▲10.5 | 81st |
| 43rd | +0.01▼0.03 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.01▲0.16 | 57th |
| 51st | +0.06▲0.06 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.06▲0.27 | 49th |
| 26th | −0.13▼0.22 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.13▲0.28 | 74th |
| 15th | 2▼1.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲1.5 | 85th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| UTSAUTSA | TulaneTULN | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 4097th | Own 2528th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | 0.0 pts39th | +1.3 pts81st |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 5745th | 5540th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +19.190th | −19.110th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 372nd | 594th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | 0.0 pts50th | −0.3 pts33rd |
| Return touchdownsReturn TDsDefensive and special-teams touchdowns. | 043rd | 192nd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. UTSA +4.2: turnovers +5.2, field position +5.2, kicking −0.9, 4th downs +0.4, penalty first downs −1.5, return touchdowns −4.2. | +4.270th | −4.230th |
Season so far
UTSA7–1 · 89th-hardest schedule
Wvs UT Rio Grande Valley45–16covered −28.5
W
at Texas State31–26covered +2.5
at Texas State31–26covered +2.5L
at Texas6–30covered +30
at Texas6–30covered +30W
vs Colorado State59–45push −14
vs Colorado State59–45push −14W
at Rice16–14missed −12.5
at Rice16–14missed −12.5W
vs South Florida31–24covered −6
vs South Florida31–24covered −6W
vs Navy38–34missed −5.5
vs Navy38–34missed −5.5Wat Tulane42–19covered −3
at Tulane42–19covered −3Tulane4–4 · 88th-hardest schedule
L
at Duke3–17missed +9QB change mid-game
at Duke3–17missed +9QB change mid-gameW
vs South Alabama28–24missed −9.5
vs South Alabama28–24missed −9.5L
at Kansas State20–31covered +20.5
at Kansas State20–31covered +20.5W
vs Southern Miss24–21missed −18.5
vs Southern Miss24–21missed −18.5L
at Army17–20covered +4
at Army17–20covered +4W
vs Memphis31–17covered +6.5
vs Memphis31–17covered +6.5Lvs UTSA19–42missed +3
vs UTSA19–42missed +3W
at Charlotte38–31missed −8.5
at Charlotte38–31missed −8.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 24, 3:20 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is