Week 4 report · Sat, Sep 26 · 2026 Week 4
Southern Miss
3–5 · Ours #126 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
21–24FinalWe had USM 17 – TULN 34
Tulane
4–4 · Ours #68 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.TULN 83%TULN won
TULN 83%TULN wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at TULN −19.5.TULN −18.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −16.3 · USM covered by 15.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 50.7.52.5final 45 · under by 7.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.No call
Quarterbacksthis game
Landry Lyddy18/29 · 243 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.1757th pct
- Comp %
- 62.1
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 4
Kadin Semonza12/24 · 129 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.495th pct
- Comp %
- 50.0
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Southern Missoffense | Played like USM +3.4Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseTulane | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28th | 35.9%▼2.6 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 35.9%▲9.0 | 72nd |
| 57th | +0.09▲0.10 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.09 | 43rd |
| 66th | +0.22▲0.31 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.22▼0.22 | 34th |
| 36th | −0.05▼0.11 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.05▲0.19 | 64th |
| 79th | 0▲1.7 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.9 | 21st |
| Tulaneoffense | defenseSouthern Miss | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26th | 35.1%▼1.2 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 35.1%▲11.8 | 74th |
| 41st | −0.01▼0.05 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.01▲0.14 | 59th |
| 15th | −0.33▼0.39 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.33▲0.54 | 85th |
| 76th | +0.23▲0.19 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.23▼0.12 | 24th |
| 41st | 1▼0.1 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.8 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Southern MissUSM | TulaneTULN | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2418th | Own 2527th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −4.9 pts1st | +0.3 pts54th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6466th | 7794th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +2.157th | −2.143rd |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 251st | 251st |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | 0.0 pts50th | −0.1 pts39th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. TULN +1.3: turnovers −2.6, field position +0.4, kicking +3.7, 4th downs −0.1. | −1.344th | +1.357th |
Season so far
Southern Miss3–5 · 102nd-hardest schedule
Wvs Alcorn State49–3covered −19.5
L
at Auburn8–43missed +32.5
at Auburn8–43missed +32.5L
vs UConn20–48missed +3QB change mid-game
vs UConn20–48missed +3QB change mid-gameLat Tulane21–24covered +18.5
at Tulane21–24covered +18.5L
at Troy34–55missed +10
at Troy34–55missed +10L
vs Arkansas State13–23missed +5.5
vs Arkansas State13–23missed +5.5W
vs Louisiana35–31covered +10
vs Louisiana35–31covered +10W
at UL Monroe35–21covered −3.5
at UL Monroe35–21covered −3.5Tulane4–4 · 88th-hardest schedule
L
at Duke3–17missed +9QB change mid-game
at Duke3–17missed +9QB change mid-gameW
vs South Alabama28–24missed −9.5
vs South Alabama28–24missed −9.5L
at Kansas State20–31covered +20.5
at Kansas State20–31covered +20.5Wvs Southern Miss24–21missed −18.5
vs Southern Miss24–21missed −18.5L
at Army17–20covered +4
at Army17–20covered +4W
vs Memphis31–17covered +6.5
vs Memphis31–17covered +6.5L
vs UTSA19–42missed +3
vs UTSA19–42missed +3W
at Charlotte38–31missed −8.5
at Charlotte38–31missed −8.5Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.6 · run Sep 26, 6:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is